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Read Article MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Giants vs. Diamondbacks play [5/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get MLB picks today and best bets for Monday, May 18, 2026.
Today’s MLB picks for May 18, 2026 are here, with Giants vs. Diamondbacks and Astros vs. Twins among the top plays identified by our model across Monday’s MLB action.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, going over the latest baseball odds to uncover real betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of MLB best bets tonight [5/18, updated 9:04PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 baseball bets, ranked by edge for Monday, May 18, 2026.
Giants vs. Diamondbacks over 9.5 runs (+117)
- Edge: 7.5%
- Probability: 53.5%
- Matchup: Giants vs. Diamondbacks (9:40PM ET, Monday)
Our model has identified value on over 9.5 runs in Giants vs. Diamondbacks at +117 odds. A 53.5% probability produces an edge of 7.5%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.
Astros vs. Twins over 8.5 runs (+100)
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 56.2%
- Matchup: Astros vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Astros vs. Twins over 8.5 runs carries a 6.2% edge and a probability of 56.2% at +100 odds, according to our model.
Brewers vs. Cubs over 8.5 runs (+113)
- Edge: 4.9%
- Probability: 51.9%
- Matchup: Brewers vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Brewers vs. Cubs over 8.5 runs at +113 odds shows a 4.9% edge, supported by a 51.9% probability in simulations.
Dodgers vs. Padres over 7.5 runs (+115)
- Edge: 4.3%
- Probability: 50.8%
- Matchup: Dodgers vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Monday)
A 4.3% edge and 50.8% probability make Dodgers vs. Padres over 7.5 runs at a value play in the Dodgers vs. Padres matchup, per our model.
Orioles vs. Rays over 7.5 runs (+102)
- Edge: 4.2%
- Probability: 53.7%
- Matchup: Orioles vs. Rays (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Orioles vs. Rays over 7.5 runs at +102 odds presents a 4.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 53.7%.
Pirates vs. Cardinals over 8.5 runs (+115)
- Edge: 4.0%
- Probability: 50.5%
- Matchup: Pirates vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model finds value on over 8.5 runs in Pirates vs. Cardinals at +115 odds, supported by an edge of 4.0%.
Tigers ML (+111)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 50.7%
- Matchup: Guardians vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model has uncovered value on Tigers ML at +111 odds. A 50.7% probability produces a 3.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
Athletics vs. Angels over 8.5 runs (-120)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 57.7%
- Matchup: Athletics vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)
A 3.2% edge on a 57.7% probability makes over 8.5 runs at -120 odds a solid value play in today's Athletics vs. Angels matchup.
Orioles -1.5 (+190)
- Edge: 3.2%
- Probability: 37.7%
- Matchup: Orioles vs. Rays (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Our model projects value on Orioles -1.5 at +190 odds. A 37.7% probability produces a 3.2% edge, making Orioles the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.
Red Sox vs. Royals over 7.5 runs (-117)
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 57.1%
- Matchup: Red Sox vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Red Sox vs. Royals over 7.5 runs at -117 odds shows a 57.1% probability and a 3.1% edge.
MLB best bets summary: Monday, 5/18/2026
As of 9:04PM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants vs. Diamondbacks | Over 9.5 Runs | +117 @ polymarket | 7.5% | 53.5% |
| Astros vs. Twins | Over 8.5 Runs | +100 @ polymarket | 6.2% | 56.2% |
| Brewers vs. Cubs | Over 8.5 Runs | +113 @ polymarket | 4.9% | 51.9% |
| Dodgers vs. Padres | Over 7.5 Runs | +115 @ polymarket | 4.3% | 50.8% |
| Orioles vs. Rays | Over 7.5 Runs | +102 @ polymarket | 4.2% | 53.7% |
| Pirates vs. Cardinals | Over 8.5 Runs | +115 @ polymarket | 4.0% | 50.5% |
| Guardians vs. Tigers | Tigers ML | +111 @ polymarket | 3.2% | 50.7% |
| Athletics vs. Angels | Over 8.5 Runs | -120 @ polymarket | 3.2% | 57.7% |
| Orioles vs. Rays | Orioles -1.5 | +190 @ polymarket | 3.2% | 37.7% |
| Red Sox vs. Royals | Over 7.5 Runs | -117 @ kalshi | 3.1% | 57.1% |
List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [5/18/2026]
- Athletics vs. Angels (9:38PM ET, Monday)
- Giants vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET, Monday)
- White Sox vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET, Monday)
- Dodgers vs. Padres (9:40PM ET, Monday)
- Braves vs. Marlins (4:10PM ET, Tuesday)
- Guardians vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Orioles vs. Rays (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Reds vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Mets vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET, Tuesday)
- Blue Jays vs. Yankees (7:05PM ET, Tuesday)
- Astros vs. Twins (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Brewers vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Red Sox vs. Royals (7:40PM ET, Tuesday)
- Pirates vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET, Tuesday)
Conclusion
Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for May 18, 2026, featuring plays such as over 9.5 runs in the Giants vs. Diamondbacks matchup and over 8.5 runs in the Astros vs. Twins matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are based on current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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