Jul 9, 2026
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Read Article Astros vs. Reds prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [5/8/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Houston Astros vs Cincinnati Reds predictions for MLB Friday.
The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Houston Astros, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Great American Ball Park on Friday, starting at 6:10 PM ET.
The Reds will have Nick Lodolo (0-0, 0.00 ERA) as their starting pitcher, pitting him against Mike Burrows (1-4, 5.97 ERA) for the Astros.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Reds a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Astros vs. Reds matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Reds prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Reds, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Reds a 52% chance of defeating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Reds odds [5/8/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-188) | -1.5 (+160) |
| Moneyline | +109 | -126 |
| Total | o9 (-105) | u9 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Reds picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Astros +1.5 | -188 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +109 |
| Total | Over 9 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Reds game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB game between the Reds and Astros at Great American Ball Park is scheduled to start at 6:10 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Friday, May 8, 2026
- Time: 6:10 PM ET/3:10PM PT
- Venue: Great American Ball Park
Conclusion
We predict the Reds, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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