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Astros vs. Orioles prediction: Tight battle projected in updated analysis for Wednesday's MLB matchup [4/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles predictions for MLB Wednesday.
The Baltimore Orioles will square off with the Houston Astros, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Wednesday, beginning at 6:35 PM ET.
Chris Bassitt (1-2, 6.75 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Orioles, while the Astros are going with Peter Lambert (1-1, 3.27 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Astros-Orioles matchup.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's Astros vs. Orioles matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Orioles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's MLB game between the Astros and Orioles, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently can't split the two teams, giving both the Astros and Orioles a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the run line, while the 9-run over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Orioles odds [4/29/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+152) | +1.5 (-185) |
| Moneyline | +105 | -122 |
| Total | o9 (-115) | u9 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Orioles picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Astros -1.5 | +152 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +105 |
| Total | Over 9 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Astros to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Orioles game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's MLB matchup between the Orioles and Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to begin at 6:35 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Wednesday, April 29, 2026
- Time: 6:35 PM ET/3:35PM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Astros and Orioles on Wednesday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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