Jul 9, 2026
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Read Article Royals vs. Mets prediction: Mets favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [7/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets predictions for MLB Thursday.
MLB action continues on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET as the Kansas City Royals square off with the New York Mets at Citi Field.
The Mets will have Sean Manaea (1-4, 5.16 ERA) as their starting pitcher, up against Michael Wacha (5-6, 3.45 ERA) for the Royals.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Mets as the most likely winner of the Royals vs. Mets game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Royals vs. Mets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Royals and Mets, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Mets a 58.8% chance of beating the Royals.
According to our model, the Royals (+1.5) have a 57.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 53.9% chance of staying under,.
Royals vs. Mets odds [7/9/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Royals | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-156) | -1.5 (+150) |
| Moneyline | +133 | -138 |
| Total | o9.5 (+113) | u9.5 (-117) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Royals vs. Mets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | polymarket+150 |
| Moneyline | Mets | polymarket-138 |
| Total | Under 9.5 | polymarket-117 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Royals vs. Mets game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Mets and Royals at Citi Field is scheduled to begin at 1:10 PM ET.
- Who: Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets
- Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026
- Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10AM PT
- Venue: Citi Field
Conclusion
We predict the Mets, with a 58.8% win probability, will likely beat the Royals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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