Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Why Hawks are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 19 matchup [7/18/2026]
Get Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Richmond Tigers and Hawthorn Hawks will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 11:10 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Tigers game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Tigers vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 19 game?
Our leading predictive model gives the Hawks a 92.5% chance of beating the Tigers.
According to our model, the Hawks (-49.5) have a 52.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 50.1% chance of staying under,.
Hawthorn vs. Richmond odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -2000 | +850 |
| Line (Spread) | -49.5 (-115) | +49.5 (-115) |
| Total | o177.5 (-115) | u177.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Tigers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -49.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -2000 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks -49.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tigers vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Tigers and Hawks at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 11:10 PM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers
- Date: Saturday, July 18, 2026
- Time: 11:10 PM ET/8:10PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 92.5% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
