The NFL season is here and so is Prospector Sam, who is excited to deliver your free football picks for NFL Week 1!

Well folks, never say I don’t care about you. The NFL season is here, which means I now have 3 different articles to write every week, and that is a hell of a load for someone with a full time job who doesn’t get paid to do this. Yet, despite the fact that I’m sort of drowning in all of it, I couldn’t be happier. We have all the sports we could ever want, I can gamble my face off, and I have tons of people finally reading all of my articles (I went months with single digit readers, and it was not exactly fun). So, while it may be a lot to handle, I’m excited to do it and I’m fully committed to bringing all of the winners and funny writing the Gold Diggers could ever want.

Like CFB, I don’t have a proven track record for you because I started at Dimers in December, but I know my shit. Ironically, I don’t think that’s saying all that much, because I’ve found most people in the US know a ton about the NFL and can handle gambling it themselves. That makes my life easier, though, because, unlike betting obscure Danish soccer, I don’t need to explain hardly anything to all of you. I’ll give you my picks, make a few jokes, and you can decide whether or not you want to use any of it. The real bonus for you is that, unlike most of the cappers on twitter, I wont charge you a penny for any of it so you don’t have to give me a damn thing other than a few minutes of time. If you want to spend hundreds for someone’s picks, be my guest, but I promise you they won’t be near as funny or pretty as me. Now, enough of the nonsense, let’s get after it!

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Free Football Picks

Best NFL Picks

Steelers vs. Bills: Sun Sept 12, 1pm (EST)

I feel like their horrible loss to the Browns in the playoffs (which, admittedly, was VERY horrible) may have blinded people to the fact that the Steelers were still a decent football team last year. Sure, they had some offensive issues and spent entirely too much time making fucking Tik Toks, but they won a division with two other playoff teams in it and finished with a +104 point differential. Call me crazy, but I just don’t see them as a 6.5 underdog to the Bills, regardless of how strong of a season Buffalo had. In fact, the perception of the Bills right now seems equally skewed in a positive direction after their run to the AFC Championship, which helped paper over the fact that their defense has some problems (and that may be putting it mildly). The Bills should undoubtedly be the favorites in this game, but the number feels closer to 3 or 4 points than almost a touchdown, and I’ll happily take 6.5 on a Steelers team who went 12-4.

💰 Pick: Steelers +6.5 (1. units)

MORE: Steelers vs. Bills simulations

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Jets vs. Panthers: Sun Sept 12, 1pm (EST)

Do people not remember how bad the Jets were last season? I do. To refresh your memory, they finished 2-14 with a -214 point differential and the worst offense in the NFL by a wide margin. The Panthers weren’t exactly pushing for the Super Bowl either, but they lost their best player early in the year and were working through Matt Rhule’s new playbook. With a year of NFL coaching under his belt and one of the best players in the NFL back at RB, this Panthers team has a shot to overperform in my opinion. As for the Jets, I don’t see them having a prayer of doing much at all. Admittedly, I’m not all that high on Wilson and his ability to step into the NFL spotlight immediately after one good year (and a couple mediocre years) at BYU, but even if he is competent the rest of this Jets team isn’t. They’re still reeling from the stain of Adam Gase and this roster will take a lot more than one QB to make them competitive again. They are, as I see it, in for another long season and I’ll gladly give up 4.5 points against the Jets on the road for almost any team. I think the Panthers take this by closer to a touchdown.

💰 Pick: Panthers -2.5 (1 unit)

MORE: Jets vs. Panthers simulations

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Eagles vs. Falcons: Sun Sept 12, 1pm (EST)

These teams have so much in common. They both have bird mascots, the ability to completely let down their fanbase on a yearly basis, and absolutely terrible defenses. Only the last one is relevant, but I figured I'd mention the other two for fun. When I saw this matchup, the first thing I thought was “points” (I’m a real deep thinker), and that’s going to dictate the pick. My feeling that this game will be higher scoring is partially colored by the offenses, but it honestly has a lot more to do with just how painfully bad both of these teams are on the other side of the ball, which is why I’m going with the over. Despite losing Julio Jones, the Falcons will likely try to beat teams by scoring and the addition of Kyle Pitts with the 4th overall pick showed their emphasis on offensive performance. The Eagles are still breaking in Jalen Hurtz, but he’s talented enough with his arm and legs to cause problems for a Falcons team that couldn’t stop hardly anyone last year. 47.5 is a fairly big hill to climb in the NFL, but these rosters are both capable of doing enough on offense, and little enough on defense, to make it happen. I think 50 is the tipping point for this total, and I’ll take the over with the current number.

💰 Pick: Total points Over 47.5 (1.5 units) 

MORE: Eagles vs. Falcons simulations

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Chargers vs. Washington: Sun Sept 12, 1pm (EST)

I’m extremely excited about this Chargers team and Justin Herbert. Everything points to a strong season and a shot at making the playoffs after an overperforming 7-9 run last year. BUT, gambling is about making money, not personal interest, and this line is completely skewed by all the public optimism surrounding San Diego. WFT (please get a fucking mascot soon, you assholes) are certainly not a Super Bowl contender, but they have one of the better defenses in the NFL which will cause problems for a fairly young QB. This game also hits a common gambling/performance trend to be aware of; teams from the West Coast traveling to play early slate games tend to struggle. While I want to believe that the Chargers are ready to step up and find a victory here, I think there are just too many things stacked against them right now. Fitzpatrick should provide WFT some quality at the QB position (assuming he doesn’t go for one of his 4 INT meltdowns) and I think they pull out this game at home to open the season. Taking points on Washington is the right way to go.

💰 Pick: Washington +1 (1 unit)

MORE: Chargers vs. Washington simulations

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Broncos vs. Giants: Sun Sept 12, 1pm (EST)

If you had to pick the worst game to watch all weekend, I bet a lot of people would point to this one. The Giants are just a mess in every sense of the word, and are desperate for a strong return from Saquon Barkley just to become relevant again. The Broncos seemingly put a lot of eggs in the “we’re going to get Aaron Rodgers” basket and now have Check Down Teddy leading their offense. It’s tough to do at the number we’re getting, but I like the under here. 42.5 points isn’t all that many, but to get there you need to find offensive production and I’m failing to see where it comes from. The Giants receiving corps is dealing with injuries and is a bit weak in general, while the Broncos have very few real weapons aside from Jerry Jeudy who’s being wasted in this offense. Given that lack of talent, I see a lot less opportunities to score and, when there are chances, for both teams to settle for 3 instead of 7. Take the under and avoid watching this game at all costs.

💰 Pick: Total points Under 42.5 (1 unit) 

MORE: Broncos vs. Giants simulations

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Ravens vs. Raiders: Mon Sept 13, 8:15pm (EST)

Lamar Jackson in a regular season football game? Sign me the hell up. If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the last two years, it’s that Lamar thrives when the spotlight is small. This man puts up ungodly performances in less important games, and it’s led the Ravens to a ton of wins in the regular season over the last two years. As for big games, well, that’s more of an issue. Jackson managed to secure his first playoff win last season, but that was more despite him than because of him. I digress. As for the game at hand, I’ll take the Ravens to win by a bunch. The Lamar factor will be important, but the Raiders are also a complete mess of an organization who lost 5 of their last 7 to miss the playoffs last year. Carr probably isn’t as bad as the people calling for his head are saying, but this defense certainly is and I don’t see how they stop Jackson and Co. from cutting them up to the tune of 30+. I like the Ravens to take this one easily, and giving up 4.5 isn’t enough to scare me off.

💰 Pick: Ravens -4.5 (2 units) 

MORE: Ravens vs. Raiders simulations

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