Mavericks vs. Heat prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [11/24/2025]

The Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Monday, starting at 7:30PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Heat as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Heat game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature stars like Bam Adebayo, Jaime Jaquez and Tyler Herro, while the Mavericks will look to P.J. Washington, Cooper Flagg and Brandon Williams.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Mavs vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NBA predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, spread, and over/under probabilities for Monday's clash between the Mavericks and Heat.

Our famous predictive model gives the Heat a 71% chance of beating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Heat winning 122-116.

According to our model, the Mavericks (+7.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 240.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Mavericks vs. Heat odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Mavericks	Heat
Spread	+7.5 (-110)	-7.5 (-108)
Moneyline	+230	-260
Total	o240.5 (-108)	u240.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mavericks vs. Heat picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Mavericks +7.5	-110
Moneyline	Mavericks	+230
Total	Under 240.5	-110

According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +7.5 at the spread.

Mavericks vs. Heat player props

Betting on Dallas vs. Miami NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.

P.J. Washington is expected to lead the Mavericks with 16 points, 8 rebounds and 2 assists, while Bam Adebayo is projected to have 21 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists for the Heat.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.

Mavericks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
P.J. Washington	16	8	2	2	36
Cooper Flagg	16	6	3	1	34
B. Williams	15	3	5	1	33
Daniel Gafford	13	8	2	0	31
D. Russell	12	3	5	2	27

Heat prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Bam Adebayo	21	9	4	1	43
Jaime Jaquez	17	7	5	1	38
Tyler Herro	17	5	4	2	33
Kel'el Ware	14	11	1	0	36
Pelle Larsson	12	4	4	1	27

Mavs vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details

Monday's matchup between the Heat and Mavericks at Kaseya Center is scheduled to start at 7:30PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
• Date: Monday, November 24, 2025
• Time: 7:30PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Kaseya Center

Conclusion

We predict the Heat, with a 71% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Monday, with Bam Adebayo projected for a game-high 43 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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