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NBA betting model insights report: Analyzing this week's performance
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
Welcome back to another Model Insight Report where we dig into where the Dimers NBA model is performing best.
Looking at this week’s numbers, the NBA remains a strong market for Dimers Pro users, delivering consistent positive returns across all markets and giving us plenty of attack spots to target in the coming days.
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NBA Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NBA Best Bets page this week.
NBA 2025-26 season analysis
Our NBA model continues to pick up steam, showing a positive return in every traditional betting market (ML/Spread/Totals)
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Moneyline bets (2-10% edge) | 70+ | POSITIVE |
| Spread bets (2-7% edge) | 65+ | POSITIVE |
| Points Totals (2-5% edge) | 10+ | POSITIVE |
Quick summary:
The sweet spot for NBA betting continues to fall within the 2–7% edge range for Moneylines and the 2-10% edge range Spread plays. These mid-tier edge values have proven to be the most reliable ROI performers so far this season.
Things to watch in NBA this week:
Much of last week’s trends hold true as we head into another week of NBA betting. Moneyline bets identified by the model with an edge between 2–10% remain the largest profit driver, while Spread and Totals bets are also producing positive ROI.
Digging deeper, Road Team Moneyline bets are outperforming Home Team bets. Both are profitable, but the model is particularly strong at spotting away team edges on the ML. Closing lines also appear to be the best time to place moneyline plays, with a noticeable difference in profit between opening and closing lines. Put simply: check the NBA Best Bets page late in the day before tip-off for the best moneyline value.
On the Totals side, the opening line represents the sweet spot for the Dimers model. Opening Line Total Bets with an edge above 2% are hitting at a 75% success rate this season, generating a strong positive ROI. The online sports betting sites typically set their lines the night before NBA games, so our advice is to check the Dimers NBA Best Bets page before bed and lock in any points total value you see for the following day.
RELATED: NHL model insights are reporting positive ROI
✅ CASHED: NBA best bet for Wednesday
Raptors Moneyline -112 (vs. 76ers)
With a nine-game slate on deck for Wednesday night, there’s no shortage of bets falling within our positive ROI range on the Best Bets page. One of the strongest, though, is the Raptors Moneyline against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Raptors — winners of eight of their last nine — are rated as a 57% chance to win by our model, creating a 3.5% edge on the -117 odds currently available at BetRivers Sportsbook. As the road team on the moneyline, this is the type of spot where the model has been thriving ✅
✅ CASHED: NBA best bet for Thursday
Kings vs. Grizzlies Under 235.5 Points
With only four games on Thursday’s NBA slate, just one play on the NBA Best Bets page falls within our sweet spot of profitability: the Under in the Kings vs. Grizzlies matchup. With the total set at 235.5, our model projects the game to stay under with a 54% probability, identifying a 2.1% edge at the best available odds of -108 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
NBA best bet for Friday 👇🏻
Bulls ML (vs. Heat)
Chicago host the Miami Heat on Friday night and our model likes the home team to make it three wins from their last three. At the time of publishing, the Dimers NBA prediction model has the Bulls as a 59.9% chance of beating Miami, with a 2.1% edge against the best available sportsbook odds of -137 with BetRivers. This falls within one of our strongest profitability spots this season: moneyline bets with an edge over 2%.
Conclusion
Building on a successful start, the focus remains on leveraging the most profitable patterns identified by the Dimers NBA Model. The 2025 season analysis confirms the model's status as one of the sharpest in the industry, continuing to show positive ROI in key areas.
Users should prioritize Moneyline and Spread bets falling within the 2- 10% edge window, a sweet spot that has proven successful whether betting early or taking advantage of closing numbers. Additionally, the model shows consistent, early strength on closing line Totals bets when they also fall into that key 2% and above edge range ✅
These insights are designed to guide your weekly approach to the NBA Best Bets page, helping you apply the same profitable strategies that have been delivering strong returns. By focusing on these opportunities, you give yourself the best chance to replicate the model's success and maximize your returns on the hardwood this week.
Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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