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Mavericks vs. Warriors prediction: Golden State to win, Stephen Curry projected for 29 points in Thursday's NBA game [12/25/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors predictions for NBA Thursday.
The Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Chase Center on Christmas Day, starting at 5:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Warriors as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Warriors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Warriors lineup will feature stars like Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Brandin Podziemski, while the Mavericks will look to Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA game between the Mavericks and Warriors 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Warriors a 76% chance of beating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Warriors winning 118-110.
According to our model, the Mavericks (+9.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 229.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Mavericks vs. Warriors odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +265 | -310 |
| Total | o229.5 (-115) | u229.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Warriors picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks +9.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | -310 |
| Total | Under 229.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Thursday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +9.5 at the spread.
Mavericks vs. Warriors player props
NBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Thursday's Mavericks vs. Warriors game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
Anthony Davis is expected to lead the Mavericks with 24 points, 12 rebounds and 4 assists, while Stephen Curry is projected to have 29 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists for the Warriors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 24 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 52 |
| Cooper Flagg | 19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 39 |
| P.J. Washington | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
| Naji Marshall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 11 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 26 |
Warriors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Warriors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 29 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 50 |
| Jimmy Butler | 22 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 42 |
| B. Podziemski | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
| Moses Moody | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Quinten Post | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
Mavs vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Warriors and Mavericks at Chase Center is scheduled to start at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Warriors, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Christmas Day, with Anthony Davis projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Warriors insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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