...
...
Read Article
Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are scheduled to meet in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Thursday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
The Cubs will have Shota Imanaga (3-2, 2.40 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Reds have opted for Rhett Lowder (3-2, 5.09 ERA).
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Reds vs. Cubs game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Reds vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Reds and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 63% chance of beating the Reds.
According to our model, the Reds (+1.5) have a 53% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52% chance of going over.
Reds vs. Cubs odds [5/7/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Reds | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-125) | -1.5 (+110) |
| Moneyline | +169 | -190 |
| Total | o8.5 (-115) | u8.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Reds vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | +110 |
| Moneyline | Reds | +169 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Reds to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Reds vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Cubs and Reds at Wrigley Field is scheduled to begin at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat the Reds in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure