College Basketball Rankings: Top 3 Most Likely Cinderella Teams for March Madness

With March Madness quickly approaching, we took a deep dive into our predictive analytics model's three most likely cinderella teams to make a Final Four run in the NCAA Tournament. One of the most difficult prizes in all of sports to win is the college basketball National Championship and in a wide open year, it would not be surprising to see a smaller program rise up from out of nowhere to win it all.

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2023 NCAA Basketball National Championship Probabilities

NCAAB TEAM	PROBABILITY	ODDS
Florida Atlantic Owls	0.3%	+20000
Boise State Broncos	0.3%	+30000
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles	0.1%	+50000

Could a mid-major team win this year's College Basketball National Championship?

The 2022-2023 college basketball season is one of the most balanced seasons in recent memory. There are zero elite teams, but plenty of good ones, including at the mid-major level. One of the most enjoyable parts of the NCAA Tournament every season is trying to identify Cinderella. This year more than ever before, smaller program teams will have a great chance to make a deep run all the way to the Final Four and maybe even beyond.

Our DimersBOT model has locked in on three mid-major teams that have the best chance to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

The top three Cinderella teams that could make a run to the Final Four

1. Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic is one of our model's top ranking mid-majors. We give the Owls an 0.3% probability to win the national championship, which may sound small, but is equal to teams like Villanova, Michigan and Texas Tech.

The Owls have arguably been the best mid-major team in the entire sport from start to finish this season. Boasting both a top-50 offense and defense, Florida Atlantic is balanced enough on both ends to beat teams in a variety of ways. They made a name for themselves with a dominant win on the road against Florida in the non-conference, and haven't slowed down once yet this season. It would not be surprising at all to see Florida Atlantic make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Boise State Broncos

Boise State is another one of our model's top ranking mid-majors. We give the Broncos an 0.3% probability to win the national championship, which may sound small, but is equal to teams like Mississippi State and Oklahoma State.

The Broncos are currently a Top 25 team according to Kenpom, so don't let the name on the jerseys confuse you. This is a team that is capable of beating high major opponents and holding their own in big games. Boise State is 3-0 against Power 5 opponents this year, with wins over Washington State, Colorado and a great Texas A&M team. With a top 10-ranked defense in the country, Boise State suffocates opposing offenses on a nightly basis. Nobody will want to see the Broncos in their region at the end of March.

3. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

Oral Roberts is the final one of our model's top ranking mid-majors. We give the Golden Eagles an 0.1% probability to win the national championship, which may sound small, but is equal to teams like Syracuse and Florida.

People remember Oral Roberts for their magical run in the NCAA Tournament a few seasons ago, but not many people realize that this year's version is even better. The Golden Eagles boast the nation's longest winning streak, and are ranked roughly 60 spots higher than they were in 2021 when they defeated Ohio State and made a run to the Sweet 16. Superstar point guard Max Abmas is as prolific as ever, but it's his running-mate Connor Vanover that opens the door for something special in the NCAA Tournament. Vanover is a 7'5" center that shoots 35% from three and isn't afraid to let them fly.

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