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Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Flavio Cobolli prediction, odds, picks for ATP Madrid Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Ugo Carabelli vs Cobolli predictions for ATP Madrid Open.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli will face Flavio Cobolli in the round of 64 at the ATP Madrid event on Saturday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Flavio Cobolli as the most likely winner of the Ugo Carabelli vs. Cobolli match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.
Ugo Carabelli vs. Cobolli prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Ugo Carabelli-Cobolli men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives Cobolli a 67% chance of defeating Ugo Carabelli at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additionally, Cobolli has a 63% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Ugo Carabelli (+3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Flavio Cobolli odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Ugo Carabelli | Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +202 | -236 |
| First Set | +162 | -200 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (-112) | -3.5 (-118) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-135) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Ugo Carabelli vs. Cobolli picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ugo Carabelli | +202 |
| First Set | Cobolli | -135 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Camilo Ugo Carabelli to win.
Although Ugo Carabelli is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Ugo Carabelli vs. Cobolli updates and essential details
The ATP Madrid Open match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Flavio Cobolli is scheduled to commence on Saturday at 9:40 AM ET.
- Who: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Flavio Cobolli
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Approx. Time: 9:40 AM ET/6:40AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Madrid, Spain Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Flavio Cobolli, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli at the ATP Madrid Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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