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Read Article Red Sox vs. Braves prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Atlanta Braves will square off with the Boston Red Sox in MLB action at Truist Park on Sunday, commencing at 1:35 PM ET.
Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.36 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Braves, up against Brayan Bello (2-4, 6.46 ERA) for the Red Sox.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model projects the Braves as the most likely winner of the Red Sox vs. Braves game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Red Sox vs. Braves prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Braves, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Braves a 58% chance of beating the Red Sox.
According to our model, the Red Sox (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 58% chance of going over.
Red Sox vs. Braves odds [5/17/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Red Sox | Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Moneyline | +124 | -144 |
| Total | o8.5 (-116) | u8.5 (-102) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Red Sox vs. Braves picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Braves -1.5 | +135 |
| Moneyline | Braves | -144 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -116 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Red Sox vs. Braves game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Braves and Red Sox at Truist Park is scheduled to commence at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
- Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: Truist Park
Conclusion
We predict the Braves, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Red Sox in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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