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Best NBA Player Prop Picks, Bets for Parlays on Wednesday July 14, 2021
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
The 2021 NBA Finals rolls on with Game 4 when the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Phoenix Suns from the Fiserv Forum in downtown Milwaukee. We cast our eye across the best player props for what promises to be a pivotal matchup.
So how do our player prop picks work exactly?
Well, our predictive analytics model has crunched the numbers ahead of tonight's game, giving us the likely stats projections which we've matched up against the sportsbook lines to find the biggest differential and edge for you to make a play on. While this article contains the best edges that we've found against the books, you can run this exercise yourself by looking in the Pre-Game Predictions tab of the game of your choice in the NBA Bet Hub.
With NBA betting picks, probabilities, odds and predicted scores featured each and every day at Dimers.com, check out our top NBA player prop picks for tonight's games.
Your favorite player not here? Find player projections for every game tonight via our NBA Bet Hub where we deliver you NBA predictions and suggested bets, based on the edge we've identified against the sportsbooks' odds.
Don't care for player props and just want picks? Sure thing. Visit our Quick Picks section and get the lowdown on the best bets for all pro and college sports.
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It's Sunday, July 11. Here is what the data is telling us for tonight's NBA player props ⏬
Suns vs. Bucks
PLAYER: Giannis Antetokounmpo
BET: First basket with DraftKings Sportsbook (+380)
Brook Lopez has won the opening tip in all three games thus far which means if you're looking for a first basket bet, you MUST be looking at the Bucks players.
Antetokonumpo cashed first bucket tickets for bettors in Game 2 and should get the first bite at the cherry in Game 4, but if you're hunting for even more value, then a small stake on Middleton (+550), Holiday (+600) and Lopez (+950) should also be considered.
PLAYER: Devin Booker
BET: UNDER 2.5 three-pointers with DraftKings Sportsbook (-132)
We've been on this prop like a see-saw throughout these NBA Finals, but so far we've cashed every time. Booker is shooting at just 30% from deep over his last ten games, which includes outings where he went 1-7 (3x), 1-8 and 0-5. The Bucks have been able to limit Booker's impact from the perimeter by pushing him out deeper, way behind the three-point line (as the below shot chart shows). Even though he's getting the volume off, the value of the shots are low. The best strategy here is to fade Book away from home.
Below: Devin Booker's 2021 Finals Shot Chart via StatMuse.com!
PLAYER: Giannis Antetokounmpo
BET: OVER 34.5 points with DraftKings Sportsbook (-106)
We're going to keep hammering Giannis here because the fact of the matter is this guy is on fire. Coming off two 40-point games in a row, Antetokounmpo appears to have unlocked the formula against the Suns who simply do not have an answer for him. In order for Milwaukee to win, the Bucks superstar needs a minimum of 35 points.
MORE: Suns vs. Bucks betting predictions
This may not be an offer you can use on props but it's still absolutely unmissable! Sign up with DraftKings Sportsbook today, then place a $1 bet on any team at the moneyline. If they win, you'll get $150 in free bets!
NBA Playoffs Free to Play
Think you know your stuff when it comes to props? Then enter our daily NBA Playoffs Free to Play contest!
Six questions, get 'em right to win a prize. With prizes on offer for a perfect day, the most points overall for the week, and a $500 grand prize for most points overall throughout the Playoffs, there is always something to play for.
Enter your picks below!
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🏀 READ: GAME 4 NBA PICKS
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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