It was a tough start to the week for Dimers Player Props readers yesterday, but we dust ourselves off and try again with another slate of NBA to pick apart.
So how do our player prop picks work exactly?
Well, our predictive analytics model has crunched the numbers ahead of tonight's games, giving us the likely stats projections which we've matched up against the sportsbook lines to find the biggest differential and edge for you to make a play on. While this article contains the best edges that we've found against the books, you can run this exercise yourself by looking in the Pre-Game Predictions tab of the game of your choice in the NBA Bet Hub.
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It's Tuesday, April 20. Here is what the data is telling us for tonight's NBA player props ⏬
PLAYER: Zion Williamson
BET:🔥 OVER 28.5 points with PointsBet (-108)
When my kids get a little older and they've graduated high school, and they're getting ready to go to college, I'm going to go to my bedroom closet and pull out a dusty shoe box from underneath a pile of old clothes. I'm going to take the shoe box back out to the living room where my kids are standing, with their bags packed, ready to leave, and then I'm going to pull out a fat stack of cash and say to my kids: "Here is your entire college tuition, in full, for Harvard."
My stunned children, jaws dropped to the floor ask me in disbelief "Dad... but how?!"
"I made a lot of money off Zion Williamson going over his points prop total in 2021"
Yes, the Prop King is features in our daily props plays again! Williamson was back to his old ways against the Knicks, tallying 34 points after two quiet games. Tonight he comes up against a Nets team who will be missing James Harden and Kevin Durant in a game where the Pels are actually favored at the moneyline. When any team plays Brooklyn, regardless of the personnel, we know points are coming. The 'books have set the line at 28.5, but our projections say he gets 32.
PLAYER: Bogdan Bogdanovic
BET:🔥 OVER 18.5 points with FanDuel Sportsbook (-104)
We stumbled over Bogdan a couple of days ago on Sunday in our props article where we couldn't quite believe the disrespect the 'books were showing him when it comes to his points prop total. We cashed that pick easily, so it's quite surprising to see the man so nice that they named him twice pop up on FanDuel Sportsbook with a props total line that is below 20.
Just to recap, Bogdanovic has scored 20 points or more in 9 of his last 11 games, going over his points prop in each of them. So, if my maths is correct (and it is), that means that over the last 11 games, if you bet on the over, you've cashed 81% of the time. That's an obscene return on investment and one that we're very much going to milk for as long as we can. Take the over, and keep taking it!
PLAYER: Enes Kanter
BET:🔥 OVER 12.5 rebounds with PointsBet (+104)
with Jusuf Nurkic sitting this game against the Clippers, Kanter will step into the starting position at the 5. Do you know what happened the last time Nurkic had a rest and Kanter started in his place? HE GOT 30 REBOUNDS.
Barring a blowout, the big Turk should see close to around 36-37 minutes in this game. With a rebound average of 16.1 per 36 minutes, it's crazy to see the sportsbooks offering plus odds to us on this one. I guess we should just say thanks and move on.
PLAYER: Ricky Rubio
BET:🔥 UNDER 9.5 points with BetMGM (-102)
Not a whole lot of points to play with her by taking Rubio and the Under, but then again, our projections say there aren't enough points to go around for the Timberwolves.
With Towns, Edwards and Russell all predicted to get their buckets, Rubio will act as the facilitator in the rare minutes he will log with a packed front court now hampering his playing time.
🔥 Williamson o28.5 points
🔥 Bogdanovic o18.5 points
🔥 Kanter o12.5 rebounds
🔥 Rubio u9.5 points
💰 Parlay with FanDuel Sportsbook (+1426)