Best Home Run Props Today for BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Friday, June 7

Best Home Run Props Today for BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Friday, June 7

It's the weekend with MLB on deck which means it's time for plenty of home runs! We've got dozens of home run props available on full slate gamedays and we're highlighting two of our strongest HR probabilities for today.

If you're not aware, BetMGM Sportsbook has a sweet baseball promo every weekend centered around home run props

Here's the skinny: bet $10 on any player to hit a home run in any game of your choosing. Once you make your bet, you'll be automatically entered into their $50,000 Grand Slam Jackpot. If that player hits a grand slam in that game, you'll win your share of a $50,000 bonus bet prize pool, split amongst all qualifying users. Read the full contest details here, as broken down by Dimers.

Even better? The jackpot resets each day, so you can get three swings at a grand payout each and every weekend.

And that's still not all! If you don't have BetMGM yet, not only will your first $10 home run bet enter you into the $50,000 jackpot pool, you'll also receive three months of Dimers Pro access, courtesy of us and BetMGM.

RELATED: Unlock 3 Months of Complementary Dimers Pro Access

Who Will Hit a Home Run This Weekend?

While we can do our best to narrow down the ideal home urn picks by combining our Dimers Pro home run data, park factors and pitching matchups, we are largely at the mercy of the baseball and gambling gods to wind up in a grand slam situation, even with 47 grand slams hit already this year, 25 of them coming in the Grand Slam Jackpot promotional period, resulting in over $1,000,000 in bonus bets awarded this season, per BetMGM.

However, we can use a couple common sense factors to give us a slight leg up when making our pick of the day. Here are a few things to consider:

High Home Run Probability: This one is straightforward - pick players with the strongest chance to hit a home run. You're not looking for value here as much as you are looking for the most likely players.

Pitching MatchupsA key factor for any baseball bet, pitching matchups can reveal a lot about a player's home run chances. You'll want pitchers with a high WHIP - the more likely they are to allow runners on base, the more likely you are to see a grand slam. Similarly, you'll want a batter who performs well against righties or lefties based on the starter, and bullpens that allow lots of hits and home runs make good targets, too.

Middle of the Order: You can't hit a grand slam without getting to the plate and guys getting on base ahead of you. For that reason, you'll typically want players who are most likely to see guys on base and who are set up to see more at-bats. The further down the batting order you go, the more you move away from the ideal targets.


Best Home Run Picks - Friday, June 7

As mentioned, you'll want to use the above factors to identify which players you want to back for your Grand Slam Jackpot entry. Below, you'll find the two hitters we've selected based on those criteria, but don't forget to check out all of the selections in Dimers Proto see if someone stands out to you.

Matt Olson (ATL) to Hit a Home Run (+260)

Last year's home run king is quietly having another solid year at the dish. After a slow start, he's up to nine HR this year with five of them coming in May. He's working his average and SLG up from their mid-April lows and his adjusted home runs by park would be as high as 14 in some parks.

Olson gets a 25.9% probability to go yard today, the highest we have for a slugger. He's up against the Nationals Jake Irvin who's allowed four homers to lefties in 35.2 IP and he typically bats cleanup, right where we want him.

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Betting Preview

 

Josh Naylor (CLE) to Hit a Home Run (+675)

Our second recommendation is a value play as a standalone prop with Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor. His 16 home runs are second on the team and he's another guy batting cleanup for a great opportunity to get that grand slam.

Naylor draws a 16.6% probability to hit a home run (fair odds of +500), and gets a matchup with Ryan Weathers who's allowed 7 home runs this year, albeit to righthanders, while Naylor is a lefty batter. 

Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins Betting Preview

 

Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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