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2026 Australian Open: Who will win at Melbourne Park?
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Picks, predictions and odds for fhe year's first tennis Grand Slam, the 2026 Australian Open from Melbourne Park.
We've unearthed the best picks, tennis predictions and odds for fhe year's first Grand Slam, the 2026 Australian Open from Melbourne Park. While Dimers' analysis suggests a heavy concentration of big names such as Sinner, Alcaraz, Fritz, Shelton, Sabalenka, and Gauff at the very top of both draws, for bettors willing to look past the top seeds, our predictions reveal intriguing value in the mid-tier.
Here is how both the Men's Tennis Futures and Women's Tennis Futures markets stack up at the 2026 Australian Open.
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Men's draw: The two-horse race and the long shots
The models are painting a clear picture: this is a duopoly. Combined, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz hold a staggering 77.6% implied probability to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup.
The favorites: Sinner and Alcaraz
Jannik Sinner (45.2%): The No. 2 seed but clear statistical favorite. Sinner enters the tournament with nearly a coin-flip chance of winning it all. Sinner begins his campaign against France's Hugo Gaston. Given his projected dominance, anything short of a final appearance would be a statistical shock.
Carlos Alcaraz (32.4%): The top-seed Alcaraz faces local Adam Walton in the First Round. While his probability is lower than Sinner's, he remains the only other player with a double-digit chance to win.
Note on Novak: It is jarring to see Novak Djokovic sitting at just 7.4%. He faces a tricky opener against clay-court specialist Pedro Martínez, but the data suggests his stranglehold on Melbourne is loosening.
The American hope: Taylor Fritz
For American fans looking for a deep run, Taylor Fritz remains the primary contender, though the path is steep.
- Win probability: 1.2%
- First Round: Fritz faces France's Valentin Roye in the First Round.
The outlook: Fritz will need to outperform his projection significantly to challenge the Sinner/Alcaraz axis, but he has a manageable opening round to settle in. Compatriots Learner Tien (0.5%) and Ben Shelton (0.3%) round out the best US hopes, according to our data.
The dark horse: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+8000)
If you are looking for a high-reward play to sprinkle on, the data points to Canada's Felix Auger-Aliassime, the No. 7 seed.
FAA enters Melbourne as perhaps the most undervalued asset in the men's futures market. While the headlines are rightfully dominated by the Sinner-Alcaraz duopoly, the Canadian has quietly re-established himself as the leader of the chasing pack. His resurgence in late 2025 was statistically elite: he racked up over 40 hard-court wins—a figure bettered only by Australian Alex de Minaur—and reached the semifinals of the US Open, when he pushed Jannik Sinner to four very competitive sets.
At +8000 odds, the market is pricing him as a peripheral figure, ignoring his pedigree on this specific surface. FAA is a player who has reached the quarterfinals or better at hard-court majors three times, including a famous five-set battle at the Australian Open against Daniil Medvedev in 2022. Unlike other longshots who rely on favorable draws to advance, Auger-Aliassime has the raw firepower to blast his way through the draw, evidenced by his recent 10-3 record against Top 10 opponents (excluding Sinner and Alcaraz).
His win probability of 1.2% suggests his price is accurate to the model, but the upside is undeniable. He opens against Portugal’s Nuno Borges who lacks the weapons to hurt FAA on the fast Melbourne courts.
If Auger-Aliassime navigates the early rounds efficiently, the combination of a big serve and elite athleticism makes him one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw. You aren't betting on him as the favorite; you are betting on a top-five talent priced like a journeyman.
The edge: At +8000, the books are pricing him as a massive long shot, but our model pegs him at a 1.2% win probability—identical to Fritz, who is priced much shorter at +4500.
Why bet him: If FAA can find his rhythm early, he has the ceiling to disrupt the draw. And, at 80-to-1, you aren't paying a premium for his talent.
While the Men's draw is a two-man show, the Women's draw has a heavy favorite but a more chaotic chasing pack.
The favorite: Aryna Sabalenka
No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka (36.5%): The gap between Sabalenka and the field is massive. Her 36.5% probability is triple that of the second favorite (Rybakina at 12.3%). She opens against French wildcard Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah and should cruise early.
The American hope: Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff (10.4%): The American star is firmly in the mix as the third favorite. She begins her tournament against Uzbekistan's Kamilla Rakhimova.
The outlook: Rated a 10.4% chance, Gauff is the most viable threat to the "Big Two" (Sabalenka/Rybakina) and offers a great rooting interest for US fans.
Note: Keep an eye on fellow Americans Amanda Anisimova (6.4%) and Jessica Pegula (4.6%), who also have strong claims to lift the women's trophy at Rod Laver Arena on Saturday, January 31 (local time).
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The value play: Belinda Bencic (+4500)
One of the most interesting prospects in the women's draw comes in the form of Switzerland's Belinda Bencic.
Bencic’s appeal as a longshot lies in a resume that far exceeds her current title odds. Most notably, her Gold Medal run at the Tokyo Olympics demonstrated her ability to navigate an elite field under pressure—a test of endurance comparable to a Grand Slam. Her strongest results have come on hard courts, highlighted by a run to the US Open semifinals in 2019, suggesting her game is well-suited to the surface in Melbourne, where she has reached the fourth round on three seperate ocassions. Bencic was also a semi-finalist at Wimbledon in 2025.
Bencic, the No. 10 seed, presents a difficult matchup for the tour’s heavy hitters. She's primarily a baseliner and takes the ball early, a strategy that can neutralizes the power of her opponents. Her ability to control the pace of a point has translated into a strong record against top-tier opposition, with career victories over multiple World No. 1s, including Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Serena Williams and Naomi Osaka.
While she faces a challenging opener against Great Britain's Katie Boulter, Bencic remains one of the best longshot threats in the women's draw.
The edge: Our model gives Bencic a 2.3% chance to win. The implied probability of +4500 odds is roughly 2.17%. This means you are getting a mathematical edge—a rare find in futures markets.
Why bet her: If she survives Boulter, her odds will crash. Grabbing the +4500 now allows you to hold a ticket with positive expected value on a player with strong Grand Slam pedigree.
For advice and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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