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2021 NBA Finals - Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game Four: Best Betting Picks, Props and Parlay, Wednesday July 14, 2021
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
The Milwaukee Bucks will host the Phoenix Suns for Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals with a chance to even up the series at 2-2.
It's Game 4, and, as always, we've simulated tonight's playoff game 10,000 times, determining where the value lies for bettors across the United States.
With NBA betting picks, probabilities, odds and predicted scores featured each and every day, check out our top plays for tonight's game.
Want even more NBA plays? Find out who we're betting on in every game via our NBA Bet Hub where we deliver you predictions and suggested bets, based on the edge we've identified against the sportsbooks' odds.
Just want picks? Sure thing. Visit our Quick Picks section and get the lowdown on the best bets for all pro and college sports.
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Here are our bets for Game 4 ⏬
Predicted score after 10,000 simulations
📊 Trends
◼️ The Over is 6-0-1 in the two teams last seven meetings against each other.
◼️ The Phoenix Suns are 5-1 at the spread in their last six games against the Bucks.
◼️ Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 40 points in each of his last two games.
✅ Best Bet
BET: Bucks at the moneyline with DraftKings Sportsbook (+15000)
📈 66% probability
The Bucks were near unrecognizable in Game 3 at home compared with the opening two games in Phoenix which goes to show just how much home court advantage matters, but also, how close these two teams are in strength. For the Suns, the blowout loss brought some real flaws to the fore that we hadn't seen yet, including the depth of their bench with only Cam Johnson providing any real spark off the bench.
In addition to that, Phoenix don't look like they have an answer for Giannis. The Greek Freak now has two consecutive 40-point games under his belt and appears to have figured out the formula for success against this Suns team. In previous playoff series', generally Antetokonumpo has been figured out by opposing defenses who shut down driving lanes and force him to take outside shots, but that hasn't been the case over the past two games of this series. In Game 3, Giannis took only three shots from outside of the key, missing them all, but that very number is proof that he has become smarter in his shot selection.
With another game at home, our data is projecting another Bucks win.
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🧨 Best Prop
PLAYER: Giannis Antetokounmpo
BET: First basket with DraftKings Sportsbook (+380)
Brook Lopez has won the opening tip in all three games thus far which means if you're looking for a first basket bet, you MUST be looking at the Bucks players.
Antetokonumpo cashed first bucket tickets for bettors in Game 2 and should get the first bite at the cherry in Game 4, but if you're hunting for even more value, then a small stake on Middleton (+550), Holiday (+600) and Lopez (+950) should also be considered.
Giannis Antetokounmpo first basket +475 ✅ pic.twitter.com/lvOKBMok7x
— NBABet (@nbabet) July 9, 2021
One Game Parlay
🦁 with BetMGM 🦁
🔥 Bucks ML
🔥 Giannis 40+ points
🔥 Middleton 8+ rebounds
🔥 Holiday 3+ threes
💰 +2135 with BetMGM
BetMGM is offering a great bonus for players looking to cash in on this One Game Parlay. It does't even matter if you win! Simply deposit $20 into your account, place your bet, and then wait for the money to come in, regardless of the result! It's free money.
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🏀 READ: GAME 4 NBA PROPS
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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