10,000 Truist Championship Simulations Reveal This Golfer Is More Likely To Finish Top-10 Than To Not

Dimers.com has crunched the numbers. After running 10,000 simulations for the 2025 Truist Championship at Philadelphia Cricket Club, the data points to one standout conclusion: Rory McIlroy is statistically more likely to finish in the top 10 than to miss it. That alone should make bettors take notice.

With betting markets heating up and the PGA Tour’s Signature Event moving away from its usual home at Quail Hollow, Dimers’ predictive model offers a sharp lens into which players hold true betting value before Thursday’s first tee.

2025 Truist Championship Preview

The 2025 Truist Championship has shifted to Philadelphia Cricket Club’s Wissahickon Course as Quail Hollow prepares for next week's PGA Championship. This A.W. Tillinghast design, measuring just over 7,100 yards and playing as a par 70, presents a different kind of challenge—one focused on precision and course management rather than power alone.

Rory McIlroy returns as the defending champion and heads into the event with momentum after clinching his long-awaited career Grand Slam at Augusta. Now, he's not only a betting favorite—he’s a statistical outlier.

Expert Insights from 10,000 Simulations of the Truist Championship

Here are the top-10 projected winners from Dimers' model, ranked by win probability. 

Dimers Pro users have access to our full list of PGA predictions every week.

McIlroy’s win probability stands alone, but the bigger story might be what happens if you focus on top-10 finishes. Additionally, head here for Dimers' best bets to win the Truist Championship.

To make the most of the above listed 365 odds, check out the latest offer from the Bet365 bonus code DIMERS.

McIlroy Above 50% To Finish Top-10

In Dimers' simulations, Rory McIlroy has a 51.5% probability to finish top-10, making him the only golfer in the field with better-than-even odds. For context:

• Collin Morikawa: 39.9% top-10 probability

• Justin Thomas: 36.8%

• Russell Henley: 32.2%

• Xander Schauffele: 30.1%

What sets McIlroy apart isn’t just raw skill—it’s form and timing. After conquering Augusta to complete the Grand Slam, McIlroy has his sights on a massive summer. This week’s Signature Event offers a final tune-up before he returns to Quail Hollow, where he’s won three times and is widely considered the course's unofficial king.

Rory McIlroy with his 2024 trophy at Quil Hollow.With no cut this week, top-10 markets offer more predictability—and McIlroy is the only golfer on the board projected to hit better than a coin flip.

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Tournament Details

• Event: 2025 Truist Championship (Signature Event, No Cut)

• Dates: Thursday, May 8 – Sunday, May 11, 2025

• Location: Wissahickon Course, Philadelphia Cricket Club (Philadelphia, PA)

• Par/Yardage: Par 70 / 7,119 yards

• Purse: $20 million (Winner receives $4 million)

• TV Coverage: Golf Channel

• Props: Truist Championship Prop Bets

Conclusion

Dimers’ 10,000 simulations point decisively toward Rory McIlroy—not just to contend, but to finish in the top 10 more often than not. With the PGA Championship looming, this is a prime spot to leverage top-10 markets, value odds, and the momentum of a generational talent peaking at the right time.

Stay tuned to Dimers.com as we roll out daily updates, predictions, and betting analysis throughout the tournament.