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Queretaro vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Queretaro vs. Toluca at the Liga MX on October 8, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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Queretaro
1
3
Oct 8, 6PM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
Toluca
Oct 8, 6PM Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca de Lerdo)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
QueretaroQUT
E. I. Lopez Rodriguez (2')
Soccer ball icon
Tiago Volpi (pen.) (57')
Soccer ball icon
E. I. Lopez Rodriguez (66')
Soccer ball icon
C. Sanvezzo (40')
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Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
TOL
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
QUT
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Gamboa replaces J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: A. Garcia replaces K. Escamilla
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: C. Orrantia replaces B. A. Garcia Caprizo
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: T. Belmonte replaces C. Baeza
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: Pedro Raul replaces E. I. Lopez Rodriguez
76'
Yellow Card
K. Escamilla (Queretaro) cautioned
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: J. Montecinos replaces C. Sanvezzo
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Queretaro: N. Cordero replaces M. Garcia
66'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by E. I. Lopez Rodriguez
1-3
61'
Yellow Card
P. Barrera (Queretaro) cautioned
57'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by Tiago Volpi (pen.)
1-2
40'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Queretaro by C. Sanvezzo
1-1
36'
Yellow Card
E. Gularte (Queretaro) cautioned
2'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by E. I. Lopez Rodriguez, assisted by J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
0-1

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Queretaro vs. Toluca: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Queretaro vs. Toluca prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Liga MX matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Queretaro vs. Toluca
  • Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023
  • Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Nemesio Díez
  • Tournament: Liga MX

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Queretaro +420, Toluca -160, draw +330
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-165/+123)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Queretaro: 18.4%
  • Toluca: 59.7%
  • Draw: 22.0%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Queretaro 0-1 Toluca, with a probability of 11%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Queretaro is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 18.4% probability, while Toluca sits at 59.7%, with the draw at 22.0%.

For full access to Liga MX predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Liga MX best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Queretaro vs. Toluca prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Liga MX and the latest Liga MX news.

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