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Cruz Azul vs. Necaxa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Cruz Azul vs. Necaxa at the Liga MX on October 4, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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LIGA MX
Cruz Azul
3
1
Oct 5, 1AM Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes (Aguascalientes)
Necaxa
Oct 5, 1AM Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes (Aguascalientes)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
NecaxaNEC
Score Summary
Cruz AzulCRA
F. Batista (pen.) (55')
Soccer ball icon
A. Sepulveda (21')
Soccer ball icon
A. Sepulveda (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
A. Sepulveda (90')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
NEC
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
CRA
100.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Cruz Azul by A. Sepulveda (pen.)
2-1
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: B. Samudio replaces A. Andrade
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: W. Madrid replaces R. Monreal
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Cruz Azul by A. Sepulveda
3-1
90'
Yellow Card
A. Sepulveda (Cruz Azul) cautioned
88'
Yellow Card
I. Rivero (Cruz Azul) cautioned
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: A. H. Gutierrez Torres replaces Moises
78'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: K. D. Castano Gil replaces C. Rodriguez
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: R. Cortez replaces E. Mendez
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: H. Jurado replaces B. Garnica
71'
Yellow Card
R. Monreal (Necaxa) cautioned
68'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: D. Cambindo replaces U. Antuna
64'
Substitution
Substitution for Necaxa: C. Gonzalez replaces J. A. Rodriguez Hernandez
55'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Necaxa by F. Batista (pen.)
1-1
32'
Substitution
Substitution for Cruz Azul: R. Guerrero replaces C. Salcedo
21'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Cruz Azul by A. Sepulveda, assisted by I. Rivero
1-0

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Cruz Azul vs. Necaxa: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Cruz Azul vs. Necaxa prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Liga MX matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Cruz Azul vs. Necaxa
  • Date: Wednesday, October 4, 2023
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
  • Tournament: Liga MX

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Cruz Azul +115, Necaxa +250, draw +250
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-120/-110)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Cruz Azul: 40.4%
  • Necaxa: 32.4%
  • Draw: 27.2%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Cruz Azul 1-1 Necaxa, with a probability of 13%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Cruz Azul is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 40.4% probability, while Necaxa sits at 32.4%, with the draw at 27.2%.

For full access to Liga MX predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Liga MX best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Cruz Azul vs. Necaxa prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Liga MX and the latest Liga MX news.

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