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Villareal vs. Alaves Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Villareal vs. Alaves at the La Liga on October 22, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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LA LIGA
Alaves
1
:
1
Oct 22, 4:30PM Estadio de la CerĂ¡mica (Villarreal)
Villareal
Oct 22, 4:30PM Estadio de la CerĂ¡mica (Villarreal)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
VillarealVIL
Score Summary
AlavesALA
G. Moreno (pen.) (65')
Soccer ball icon
Samu (48')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
VIL
0.0%
Draw
100.0%
ALA
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: R. Marin replaces A. Guevara
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: A. Rebbach replaces L. Rioja
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: X. Alkain replaces A. Gorosabel
88'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: K. Garcia replaces Samu
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: B. Brereton Diaz replaces D. Parejo
77'
Substitution
Substitution for Alaves: N. Tenaglia replaces A. Sola
75'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: R. Terrats replaces Kiko
74'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: I. Akhomach replaces S. Comesana
71'
Yellow Card
J. Cuenca (Villarreal) cautioned
65'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Villarreal by G. Moreno (pen.)
1-1
58'
Yellow Card
S. Comesana (Villarreal) cautioned
54'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: A. Altimira replaces A. Mandi
54'
Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: A. Moreno replaces A. Pedraza
48'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Alaves by Samu, assisted by J. Guridi
1-0
36'
Yellow Card
A. Abqar (Alaves) cautioned
35'
Yellow Card
Kiko (Villarreal) cautioned
33'
Yellow Card
A. Sivera (Alaves) cautioned
23'
Yellow Card
A. Sorloth (Villarreal) cautioned
14'
Yellow Card
A. Guevara (Alaves) cautioned
9'
Yellow Card
A. Pedraza (Villarreal) cautioned

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Villareal vs. Alaves: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Villareal vs. Alaves prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all La Liga matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Villareal vs. Alaves
  • Date: Sunday, October 22, 2023
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Estadio de la CerĂ¡mica
  • Tournament: La Liga

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Villareal -110, Alaves +310, draw +255
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (+100/-118)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Villareal: 49.7%
  • Alaves: 25.1%
  • Draw: 25.2%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Villareal 1-1 Alaves, with a probability of 12%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Villareal is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 49.7% probability, while Alaves sits at 25.1%, with the draw at 25.2%.

For full access to La Liga predictions, probabilities, and tools such as La Liga best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Villareal vs. Alaves prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the La Liga and the latest La Liga news.

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