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Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our prediction and analysis for Newcastle vs. Aston Villa at the Premier League on August 12, 2023 includes win probabilities and picks for major markets.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Aston Villa
1
5
Aug 12, 4:30PM St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne)
Newcastle
Aug 12, 4:30PM St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne)
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
NewcastleNEW
Score Summary
Aston VillaVIL
S. Tonali (6')
Soccer ball icon
A. Isak (16')
Soccer ball icon
A. Isak (58')
Soccer ball icon
C. Wilson (77')
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H. Barnes (90')
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M. Diaby (11')
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Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
NEW
100.0%
Draw
0.0%
VIL
0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
90'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Newcastle by H. Barnes, assisted by J. Murphy
1-5
90'
Yellow Card
S. Tonali (Newcastle) cautioned
90'
Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle: E. Anderson replaces S. Tonali
87'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: J. Philogene-Bidace replaces M. Cash
87'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Coutinho replaces M. Diaby
86'
Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle: J. Murphy replaces M. Almiron
85'
Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle: S. Longstaff replaces B. Guimaraes
77'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Newcastle by C. Wilson, assisted by H. Barnes
1-4
68'
Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle: C. Wilson replaces A. Isak
68'
Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle: H. Barnes replaces A. Gordon
67'
Yellow Card
B. Guimaraes (Newcastle) cautioned
64'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Diego Carlos replaces J. McGinn
58'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Newcastle by A. Isak
1-3
53'
Yellow Card
A. Gordon (Newcastle) cautioned
48'
Yellow Card
M. Cash (Aston Villa) cautioned
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Y. Tielemans replaces L. Bailey
45'
Yellow Card
E. Martinez (Aston Villa) cautioned
45'
Yellow Card
S. Botman (Newcastle) cautioned
32'
Yellow Card
L. Digne (Aston Villa) cautioned
31'
Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: P. Torres replaces T. Mings
16'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Newcastle by A. Isak, assisted by S. Botman
1-2
11'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Aston Villa by M. Diaby, assisted by O. Watkins
1-1
6'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Newcastle by S. Tonali, assisted by A. Gordon
0-1
6'
Yellow Card
Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa) cautioned

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Newcastle vs. Aston Villa: Detailed breakdown

Dimers' Newcastle vs. Aston Villa prediction is generated using an international soccer rating framework applied consistently across all Premier League matches. Each output is built on proprietary features and maintained throughout the tournament to ensure reliable and current projections.

Match overview

  • Teams: Newcastle vs. Aston Villa
  • Date: Saturday, August 12, 2023
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: St. James' Park
  • Tournament: Premier League

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Newcastle -130, Aston Villa +390, draw +300
  • Total (Over/Under): 2.5 goals (-133/+116)

Dimers' win probabilities

  • Newcastle: 60.2%
  • Aston Villa: 17.8%
  • Draw: 22.0%

These probabilities are generated using a rating system designed specifically for international soccer. The model evaluates past performance, opponent strength, expected player involvement, and other underlying signals to estimate each team's chance of winning, drawing, or losing.

Projected score

The most likely correct score for this matchup is Newcastle 1-0 Aston Villa, with a probability of 11%.

Correct score projections reflect expected scoring distributions. In some cases, a team can carry a higher overall win probability while the most likely specific outcome is a narrow result or a draw.

Our prediction: Who wins?

Newcastle is the most likely winner of this matchup with a 60.2% probability, while Aston Villa sits at 17.8%, with the draw at 22.0%.

For full access to Premier League predictions, probabilities, and tools such as Premier League best bets across every match, Dimers Pro unlocks the complete experience.

Summary

Dimers' Newcastle vs. Aston Villa prediction is grounded in repeatable logic—not headlines or hunches. This matchup-level analysis also feeds into our broader tournament coverage, including who will win the Premier League and the latest Premier League news.

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