Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans prediction: Why Swans are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 23 matchup [8/16/2026]
Get Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans predictions for AFL Sunday.
The Essendon Bombers will take on the favored Sydney Swans in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, beginning at 2:40 AM ET.
Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Swans as the most likely winner in this Swans vs. Bombers prediction.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Bombers vs. Swans prediction: Who will win Round 23 game?
Our famous predictive model gives the Swans a 96.2% chance of defeating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Swans (-10.5) have a 80.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 185.5 points has a 50.3% chance of going over,.
Sydney vs. Essendon odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Swans -5000, Bombers +1300
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Swans vs. Bombers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Swans -10.5 @ +105 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Swans @ -5000 via DraftKings
- Total: Over 185.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Swans -10.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bombers vs. Swans game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football action between the Bombers and Swans at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 2:40 AM ET.
- Who: Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers
- Date: Sunday, August 16, 2026
- Time: 2:40 AM ET/11:40PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Swans, with a 96.2% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
