Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues prediction: Cats favored to win Friday's AFL Round 26 matchup [9/4/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL matchup between the Blues and Cats, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Cats a 61.5% chance of beating the Blues.

According to our model, the Cats (-8.5) have a 50.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 169.5 points has a 51.2% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Blues +140, Cats -179
• Total: Over/Under 169.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Cats -8.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Cats @ -179 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 169.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 169.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first bounce details

Friday's Australian rules football matchup between the Cats and Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 5:40 AM ET.

• Who: Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats
• Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
• Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Cats, with a 61.5% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Friday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.