Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows prediction favors Lions to win Saturday's AFL Round 27 matchup [9/12/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's AFL game between the Crows and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lions a 75.5% chance of beating the Crows. According to our model, the Lions (-21.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 180.5 points has a 52.0% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Crows +235, Lions -312
• Total: Over/Under 180.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Lions -21.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Lions @ -312 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 180.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first bounce details

Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Lions and Crows at The Gabba is scheduled to commence at 5:35 AM ET.

• Who: Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
• Venue: The Gabba

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 75.5% win probability, will likely beat the Crows in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary AFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.