Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions prediction favors Hawks to win Saturday's AFL Round 28 matchup [9/19/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's AFL game between the Lions and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Hawks a 56.2% chance of beating the Lions. According to our model, the Hawks (+3.5) have a 63.8% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 190.5 points has a 51.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Lions -135, Hawks +105
• Total: Over/Under 190.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Hawks +3.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Hawks @ +105 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 190.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first bounce details

Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Hawks and Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 3:15 AM ET.

• Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 3:15 AM ET/12:15AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Hawks, with a 56.2% win probability, will likely beat the Lions in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary AFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.