Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues prediction: Why Blues are favored to win AFL Finals week one matchup [8/29/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Blues and Demons, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Blues a 50.1% chance of defeating the Demons.

According to our model, the Blues (-1.5) have a 50.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 178.5-point over/under has a 51.5% chance of staying under.

Carlton vs. Melbourne odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Blues -115, Demons -110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Blues vs. Demons picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Blues -1.5 @ -105 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Demons @ -110 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 178.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues -1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Demons vs. Blues game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Demons and Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 5:35 AM ET.

• Who: Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons
• Date: Saturday, August 29, 2026
• Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Blues, with a 50.1% win probability, will likely beat the Demons in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.