Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers prediction: Why Demons are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 18 matchup [7/12/2026]

The Melbourne Demons will take on the Richmond Tigers in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, starting at 1:15 AM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Demons as the most likely winner of the Tigers vs. Demons game.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Demons vs. Tigers prediction: Who will win Round 18 game?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's AFL matchup between the Tigers and Demons, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Demons an 89.3% chance of defeating the Tigers.

According to our model, the Tigers (+37.5) have a 51.0% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 166.5 points has a 50.2% chance of staying under,.

Richmond vs. Melbourne odds

We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Tigers	Demons
H2H (Moneyline)	+550	-1000
Line (Spread)	+37.5 (-115)	-37.5 (-115)
Total	o166.5 (-115)	u166.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Tigers vs. Demons picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Tigers +37.5	-115
Moneyline	Demons	-1000
Total	Under 166.5	-115

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Demons to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Demons vs. Tigers game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's Australian rules football matchup between the Demons and Tigers at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 1:15 AM ET.

• Who: Richmond Tigers vs. Melbourne Demons
• Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
• Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Demons, with an 89.3% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Sunday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.