Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks prediction: Lions favored to win Friday's AFL Round 22 matchup [8/7/2026]
Get Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks predictions for AFL Friday.
AFL action continues on Friday at 5:40 AM ET as the Hawthorn Hawks square off with the Brisbane Lions at The Gabba.
Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner in this Hawks vs. Lions prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Lions vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win Round 22 game?
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lions a 60.0% chance of defeating the Hawks.
According to our model, the Lions (-5.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 188.5 points has a 52.4% chance of staying under,.
Hawthorn vs. Brisbane odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Hawks | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +110 | -141 |
| Line (Spread) | +5.5 (-115) | -5.5 (-115) |
| Total | o188.5 (-115) | u188.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Hawks vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions -5.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Lions | -141 |
| Total | Under 188.5 | -115 |
According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lions vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football action between the Lions and Hawks at The Gabba is scheduled to begin at 5:40 AM ET.
- Who: Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions
- Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
- Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
- Venue: The Gabba
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 60.0% win probability, will likely beat the Hawks in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
