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Read Article Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Why Cats are favored to win Friday's AFL Round 20 matchup [7/24/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats predictions for AFL Friday.
The Melbourne Demons and Geelong Cats will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Friday, starting at 5:40 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Cats as the most likely winner of the Cats vs. Demons game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Demons vs. Cats prediction: Who will win Round 20 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL matchup between the Cats and Demons, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Cats a 50.2% chance of defeating the Demons.
According to our model, the Demons (+2.5) have a 56.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 51.2% chance of staying under,.
Geelong vs. Melbourne odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cats | Demons |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -125 | -105 |
| Line (Spread) | -2.5 (-115) | +2.5 (-115) |
| Total | o177.5 (-115) | u177.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cats vs. Demons picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Demons +2.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Demons | -105 |
| Total | Under 177.5 | -115 |
According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Demons +2.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Demons vs. Cats game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football matchup between the Demons and Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to begin at 5:40 AM ET.
- Who: Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons
- Date: Friday, July 24, 2026
- Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with a 50.2% win probability, will likely beat the Demons in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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