World Cup soccer odds today: Monday's betting cheat sheet [June 29]

The Round of 32 of soccer's World Cup 2026 continues with three sudden death matches on today's World Cup schedule, and this betting odds preview is designed to help you navigate Monday's matches using Dimers' data-driven World Cup predictions on June 29.

Kicking things off today is the match between Brazil and Japan at 1pm, then it's Germany and Paraguay at 4:30pm, before the nightshift match between Morocco and Netherlands at 9pm.

Thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook, we've broken down each of Monday's Round of 32 matchups below in our World Cup betting preview, with everything you need to know about the teams, the players, the probabilities, the most likely score lines, as well as the sharpest player props for Monday's three World Cup fixtures.

Today's World Cup 2026 odds - June 29

Dimers' World Cup 2026 odds refer to the forecasts and statistical projections made by our team of data scientists regarding the outcomes of not only the three matches on Monday, June 27, but also the ultimate winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. These predictions for the 2026 World Cup are generated by highly sophisticated machine learning models that analyze historical odds, data sets, player-specific performance metrics, and team-level compositions that delivered some outstanding betting results.

Brazil vs. Japan odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: June 29, 1:00pm (ET)

The tournament has transitioned into the high-stakes single-elimination knockout phase, bringing a much anticipated clash between Brazil and Japan in the Round of 32. Brazil marches into the knockouts with strong momentum, having captured the top spot in Group C through an unbeaten group stage (2 wins, 1 draw). Japan, true to their disciplined reputation, secured their progression as Group F runners-up behind the Netherlands, relying on a resilient, defensive foundation built on two tactical draws and a win.

The algorithmic metrics install the Seleção as the distinct front-runner to secure passage to the Round of 16, anticipating a measured, tactical battle. Here is a direct breakdown of the moneyline probabilities, goal lines, and top exact scores.

Moneyline odds: Who will win Brazil vs. Japan?

The straight-up winner market leans firmly toward a Brazil victory within regular time, though the combined probability of a draw sending the match to extra time or a Japanese upset covers more than 40% of the board:

• Brazil to win: 57.3%
• Draw: 24.0%
• Japan to win: 18.8%

Total goals odds (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting Japan's highly compact structural setup and the risk-averse nature, the model favors a lower-scoring affair that stays below the standard line:

• Brazil-Japan Under 2.5 goals: 53.4%
• Brazil-Japan Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%

Top 5 exact scoreline predictions

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a tight, competitive matchup where narrow single-goal margins or low-scoring deadlocks represent the highest individual probabilities:

• Brazil 1-0 Japan: 13.3%
• Brazil 1-1 Japan: 11.3%
• Brazil 2-0 Japan: 11.2%
• Brazil 2-1 Japan: 9.6%
• Brazil 0-0 Japan: 7.8%

Unlock more match insights in our Brazil vs. Japan match center.

Summary: Brazil enters this knockout opener as a solid 57.3% favorite. Because a straight play on the favorite carries a high tax on its own, utilizing alternative combinations is the most logical route. Given the model's 53.4% lean toward Under 2.5 total goals and the heavy statistical weight behind low-scoring results—where the 1-0 win and 1-1 draw lead the metrics—pairing Brazil or Draw on the Double Chance market with Under 2.5 total match goals builds a highly supported angle designed to capture a tight, defensive script.

Paraguay vs. Germany odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: June 29, 4:30pm (ET)

The single-elimination knockout phase rolls on with a compelling cross-continental clash in the Round of 32 between Paraguay and Germany. Germany breezes into the elimination bracket carrying plenty of confidence after dominant group-stage performances that secured them first place in Group E. Paraguay, on the other hand, had to endure a far more stressful route, ultimately navigating their way into the bracket as one of the highly competitive third-place wild card survivors out of Group D.

The projections heavily favor the European giants to control the script and advance, predicting an active scoresheet. Here is the direct look at the moneyline metrics, total goals lines, and most probable exact scores.

Moneyline odds: Who will win Paraguay vs. Germany?

The straight-up winner market places Germany as a commanding front-runner to advance within regular time, giving the South American underdogs a narrow mathematical window to force extra time or pull off a massive upset:

• Germany to win: 68.8%
• Draw: 19.0%
• Paraguay to win: 12.2%

Total goals odds (Over/Under 2.5)

In contrast to some of the more conservative knockout matchups on the board, the model anticipates an open encounter, favoring the over as Germany looks to assert its standard attacking style:

• Paraguay-Germany Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%
• Paraguay-Germany Under 2.5 goals: 44.7%

Top 5 exact scoreline predictions

The exact scoreline distribution reflects Germany's status as a strong favorite, heavily leaning toward multi-goal victories or tight shutouts for the front-runners:

• Germany 2-0 Paraguay: 12.5%
• Germany 1-0 Paraguay: 11.8%
• Germany 2-1 Paraguay: 9.6%
• Germany 1-1 Draw: 9.0%
• Germany 3-0 Paraguay: 8.9%

Unlock more match insights in our Paraguay vs. Germany match center.

Summary: Germany enters this knockout fixture as a clear 68.8% favorite. Since their straight moneyline price doesn't yield deep value on its own, looking at alternative combinations is the best way to extract a better return. Given the model's 55.3% confidence in Over 2.5 total goals and the heavy preference for multi-goal German wins in the score data—where the 2-0, 2-1, and 3-0 lines hold significant weight—pairing a Germany victory with Over 1.5 total match goals or backing Germany to win and Over 2.5 goals provides a highly supported and logical path.

Morocco vs. Netherlands odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: June 29, 9pm (ET)

The night shift serves up an exceptional heavyweight matchup between Morocco and the Netherlands in the Round of 32. Both nations enter the elimination bracket sporting identical, unbeaten group stage records (2 wins, 1 draw). The Oranje captured the top spot in Group F through a mix of tactical flexibility and clinical execution. Morocco, showcasing the elite defensive organization and structure that has made them a brutal tournament matchup, marched through as the runners-up of Group C behind Brazil.

Our analysis give the Dutch squad the upper hand to advance, but the high draw percentage signals a tightly contested, tactical battle. Here is the direct breakdown of the moneyline probabilities, goal totals, and top exact scorelines.

Moneyline odds: Who will win Morocco vs. Netherlands?

The straight-up winner market favors a Netherlands victory in regulation, though Morocco's defensive resilience leaves a combined 55.8% window for a draw to force extra time or an outright Atlas Lions upset:

• Netherlands to win: 44.2%
• Draw: 27.1%
• Morocco to win: 28.7%

Total goals odds (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting Morocco's compact defensive record and the traditionally cautious nature of high-stakes knockout openers, the algorithm leans firmly toward a lower-scoring affair that stays below the standard line:

• Morocco-Netherlands Under 2.5 goals: 56.5%
• Morocco-Netherlands Over 2.5 goals: 43.5%

Top 5 exact scoreline predictions

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a game of razor-thin margins, where low-scoring stalemates or single-goal victories dominate the expected outcomes:

• Netherlands 1-1 Morocco: 12.8%
• Netherlands 1-0 Morocco: 12.2%
• Netherlands 0-1 Morocco: 9.3%
• Netherlands 0-0 Morocco: 8.9%
• Netherlands 2-1 Morocco: 8.8%

Unlock more match insights in our Netherlands vs. Morocco match center.

Summary: The Netherlands holds the front-runner status with a 44.2% win probability. However, because Morocco is notoriously difficult to break down and the model flags a 1-1 deadlock as the single most probable regular-time outcome (12.8%), targeting regular-time moneylines carries substantial risk. Backing Under 2.5 total match goals represents a highly secure angle, while pairing Netherlands or Draw on the Double Chance market with Under 2.5 match goals aligns beautifully with a tight, defensive script.