World Cup soccer odds today: Friday's betting cheat sheet [July 3]

The soccer World Cup 2026 knockout Round of 32 stage continues to wind down but we still have three more sudden death matches on today's World Cup schedule, and this betting odds preview is designed to help you navigate Friday's matches using Dimers' data-driven World Cup predictions on July 3.

Kicking things off today is the match between Australia and Egypt at 2pm, then it's Argentina and Cabo Verde at 6pm, before the nightshift match between Colombia and Ghana at 9.30pm.

Thanks to DraftKings Sportsbook, we've broken down each of Friday's Round of 32 matchups below in our World Cup betting preview, with everything you need to know about the teams, the players, the probabilities, the most likely score lines, as well as the sharpest player props for Friday's three World Cup fixtures.

Today's World Cup 2026 odds - July 3

Dimers' World Cup 2026 odds refer to the forecasts and statistical projections made by our team of data scientists regarding the outcomes of not only the three matches on Friday, July 3, but also the ultimate winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. These predictions for the 2026 World Cup are generated by highly sophisticated machine learning models that analyze historical odds, data sets, player-specific performance metrics, and team-level compositions that delivered some outstanding betting results.

Australia vs. Egypt odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 3, 2pm (ET)

The final day of the Round of 32 knockout stage gets underway on today with a beautifully balanced cross-continental clash. This serves as the first of three final elimination matches before the highly anticipated Round of 16 kicks off tomorrow.

Egypt secured their passage to the knockout bracket as the undefeated runners-up of Group G, building their campaign on a highly disciplined foundation of two draws and a win. Australia navigated a far more volatile road to the elimination phase, scraping through as the Group D runners-up behind the United States after trading results with a win, a draw, and a loss.

The projections position the Pharaohs as a microscopic regular-time favorite, but the incredibly tight percentage splits hint at a grueling, low-margin battle. Here is our look at the moneyline metrics, total goals market, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market reveals a virtual dead heat between all three regular-time outcomes, highlighting just how evenly matched oddsmakers view these two nations:

• Egypt to win: 38.3%
• Draw: 30.9%
• Australia to win: 30.8%

Total goals market (Over/Under 1.5)

Reflecting Egypt's historically rigid defensive block and the massive pressure of single-elimination football, sportsbooks have lowered the standard threshold significantly to an Over/Under of 1.5. The model indicates a relatively tight edge toward an active scoreboard finding at least two goals:

• Over 1.5 goals: 58.9%
• Under 1.5 goals: 41.1%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a tactical battle where a low-scoring stalemate or a narrow single-goal margin represents the highest statistical probabilities:

• Australia 0-1 Egypt: 14.6%
• Australia 0-0 Draw: 13.8%
• Australia 1-1 Draw: 13.5%
• Australia 1-0 Egypt: 12.7%
• Australia 0-2 Egypt: 7.8%

Summary: Egypt enters this opening Friday knockout match as a slight 38.3% favorite. Because the moneyline splits are basically divided into thirds and a 0-0 or 1-1 deadlock combines for a prominent 27.3% chunk of the expected scores, targeting straight regular-time sides is highly volatile. Given the model's 58.9% confidence in clearing the low goal tier, backing Over 1.5 total match goals provides a solid foundation, while pairing Egypt or Draw on the Double Chance market offers a highly supported, data-backed path to capture the most probable scripts.

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 3, 6pm (ET)

The final day of the Round of 32 knockout stage rolls on with this classic David vs. Goliath matchup. Following the Egypt vs. Australia opener, this second fixture features one of the tournament's most imposing heavyweights taking on a resilient underdog looking to extend a historic run.

Argentina cruised into the knockout rounds looking like a true powerhouse, entirely dominating Group J with three straight victories to capture the top seed. Cabo Verde, by contrast, navigated their way into the elimination bracket via a highly unique path, advancing as the undefeated runners-up of Group H behind Spain after grinding out three consecutive tactical draws.

Our projections position the South American giants as overwhelming front-runners to secure their spot in the Round of 16, forecasting a multi-goal script controlled entirely by the favorites. Here is a look at the moneyline percentages, total goals market, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market leaves little room for ambiguity, installing Argentina as a dominant favorite while giving the Blue Sharks a minimal mathematical window to force extra time or orchestrate a monumental knockout shocker:

• Argentina to win: 82.6%
• Draw: 13.3%
• Cabo Verde to win: 4.1%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting Argentina's lethal attacking rotations balanced against a Cabo Verde side that will likely be forced out of its defensive shell if they concede early, the model leans toward a higher-scoring encounter that clears the standard benchmark:

• Over 2.5 goals: 52.3%
• Under 2.5 goals: 47.7%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a clear expectation of a multi-goal victory for the favorites, with clean-sheet patterns completely dominating the highest individual probabilities:

• Argentina 2-0 Cabo Verde: 18.3%
• Argentina 1-0 Cabo Verde: 15.4%
• Argentina 3-0 Cabo Verde: 14.5%
• Argentina 4-0 Cabo Verde: 8.6%
• Argentina 2-1 Cabo Verde: 6.6%

Summary: Argentina enters this knockout fixture as a dominant 82.6% front-runner. Since their straight regular-time winner price requires a massive premium on its own, utilizing alternative markets or combination plays is the smartest approach. Given the model's heavy preference for clean sheets in the correct score data—where a 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 win accounts for nearly half of the expected distribution—backing Argentina to win to nil or pairing an Argentina victory with an alt line of Over 1.5 total match goals builds a highly logical and data-supported path.

Colombia vs.Ghana odds, picks and predictions

Kickoff: July 3, 9.30pm (ET)

The knockout phase reaches a climax of sorts on Friday night with the final match of the Round of 32. Following the Argentina vs. Cabo Verde fixture, this high-stakes clash will determine the final nation to secure their passport to the Round of 16 kick-off tomorrow.

Colombia heads into the bracket full of confidence after entirely dictating terms in Group K, capturing the top spot via an unbeaten opening stage (2 wins, 1 draw). Ghana, by contrast, had to endure a highly turbulent journey to qualify, narrowly scraping through as a third-place wild card survivor out of Group L after trading results with a win, a draw, and a loss.

The projections position Los Cafeteros as a commanding favorite to control the tempo and advance within regular time, predicting a measured, tactical battle. Here is our look at the moneyline percentages, total goals lines, and top exact scores.

Moneyline

The straight-up winner market heavily backs a Colombia victory in regulation, leaving the African underdogs with a very tight mathematical window to force extra time or orchestrate a massive final-match upset:

• Colombia to win: 68.4%
• Draw: 20.6%
• Ghana to win: 11.0%

Total goals market (Over/Under 2.5)

Reflecting the enormous pressure of a win-or-go-home environment and Colombia's structured defensive record, the model leans toward a more conservative, lower-scoring affair that stays below the standard line:

• Under 2.5 goals: 54.1%
• Over 2.5 goals: 45.9%

Most likely exact scores

The exact scoreline distribution underscores a game of thin margins where narrow clean sheets or a tight draw lead the individual probabilities:

• Colombia 1-0 Ghana: 15.4%
• Colombia 2-0 Ghana: 14.7%
• Colombia 1-1 Draw: 9.4%
• Colombia 3-0 Ghana: 9.3%
• Colombia 2-1 Ghana: 8.9%

Summary: Colombia enters this final Round of 32 matchup as a decisive 68.4% favorite. Since a straight play on the regular-time moneyline requires a significant premium, looking at alternative combinations is your best angle to find betting value. Given the model's 54.1% confidence in Under 2.5 total match goals and the clear preference for low-scoring clean sheets in the data—where the 1-0 and 2-0 margins sit right at the top—pairing a Colombia victory with an alt line of Under 3.5 total match goals or backing Colombia to win to nil provides a highly supported and data-backed path.