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WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, May 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/9.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, May 9, 2026—are live with the Mavericks' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Wilson, Paige Bueckers and Haley Jones lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 9, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 16.7% |
| Paige Bueckers (Wings) | 15.0% |
| Haley Jones (Fire) | 14.6% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 13.8% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 13.2% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.0% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 12.7% |
| Rhyne Howard (Dream) | 12.5% |
| Rickea Jackson (Sky) | 12.4% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.4% |
| Carla Leite (Fire) | 12.3% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 12.2% |
| Allisha Gray (Dream) | 11.4% |
| Maddy Siegrist (Wings) | 11.0% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 10.9% |
| Angel Reese (Dream) | 10.6% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 10.3% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 10.3% |
| Kiana Williams (Mercury) | 10.0% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 9.8% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 9.4% |
| Azzi Fudd (Wings) | 9.4% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.2% |
| Emily Engstler (Fire) | 8.8% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 8.7% |
| Luisa Geiselsoder (Fire) | 8.6% |
| Myisha Hines-Allen (Fever) | 8.5% |
| Jordin Canada (Dream) | 8.4% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 8.2% |
| Arike Ogunbowale (Wings) | 8.2% |
| NaLyssa Smith (Aces) | 8.1% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 7.7% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.3% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 7.3% |
| Naz Hillmon (Dream) | 7.2% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 6.7% |
| Alanna Smith (Wings) | 6.5% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.7% |
| Bridget Carleton (Fire) | 5.7% |
| Rachel Banham (Sky) | 5.5% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haley Jones | Fire | 6.9% | +1200 | 14.6% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 3.3% | +1000 | 12.4% |
| Carla Leite | Fire | 2.8% | +950 | 12.3% |
| Jackie Young | Aces | 1.6% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Azzi Fudd | Wings | 1.1% | +1100 | 9.4% |
| Arike Ogunbowale | Wings | 0.5% | +1200 | 8.2% |
| Olivia Miles | Lynx | 0.1% | +1000 | 9.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, May 9, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Paige Bueckers and Haley Jones lead our first basket projections, with Jones shaping as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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