Best WNBA bets today: Sunday's picks include Liberty vs. Mystics play [5/10/2026]

Liberty ML (-225)

• Edge: 13.9%
• Probability: 83.1%
• Matchup: Liberty vs. Mystics (3:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has identified value on Liberty to defeat Mystics at -225 odds. A 83.1% probability produces an edge of 13.9%, making this the strongest play for today's WNBA slate.

Liberty -5.5 (-110)

• Edge: 13.8%
• Probability: 66.2%
• Matchup: Liberty vs. Mystics (3:00PM ET, Sunday)

Liberty -5.5 carries a 13.8% edge and a probability of 66.2% at -110 odds, according to our model.

Liberty vs. Mystics over 164.5 points (-110)

• Edge: 11.8%
• Probability: 64.2%
• Matchup: Liberty vs. Mystics (3:00PM ET, Sunday)

Liberty vs. Mystics over 164.5 points at -110 odds shows a 11.8% edge, supported by a 64.2% probability in simulations.

Aces vs. Sparks under 177.5 points (-118)

• Edge: 9.5%
• Probability: 63.6%
• Matchup: Aces vs. Sparks (6:00PM ET, Sunday)

A 9.5% edge and 63.6% probability make Aces vs. Sparks under 177.5 points at a value play in the Aces vs. Sparks matchup, per our model.

Sun +1.5 (-110)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 59.6%
• Matchup: Storm vs. Sun (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Sun +1.5 at -110 odds presents a 7.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 59.6%.

Valkyries ML (-122)

• Edge: 7.0%
• Probability: 62%
• Matchup: Mercury vs. Valkyries (8:30PM ET, Sunday)

Our model finds value on Valkyries to win at -122 odds, supported by an edge of 7.0%.

Sun ML (+105)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 54.7%
• Matchup: Storm vs. Sun (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has uncovered value on Sun ML at +105 odds. A 54.7% probability produces a 5.9% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.

Valkyries -1.5 (-110)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 56.1%
• Matchup: Mercury vs. Valkyries (8:30PM ET, Sunday)

A 3.7% edge on a 56.1% probability makes Valkyries -1.5 at -110 odds a solid value play in today's Mercury vs. Valkyries matchup.

Aces ML (-142)

• Edge: 2.3%
• Probability: 61%
• Matchup: Aces vs. Sparks (6:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model projects value on Aces to win at -142 odds. A 61% probability produces a 2.3% edge, making Aces the favorable ML play in Saturday’s matchup.

WNBA best bets summary: Sunday, 5/10/2026

As of 4:03AM ET, here are our top WNBA bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Liberty vs. Mystics	Liberty ML	-225 @ BetMGM	13.9%	83.1%
Liberty vs. Mystics	Liberty -5.5	-110 @ BetMGM	13.8%	66.2%
Liberty vs. Mystics	Over 164.5 Points	-110 @ BetMGM	11.8%	64.2%
Aces vs. Sparks	Under 177.5 Points	-118 @ BetMGM	9.5%	63.6%
Storm vs. Sun	Sun +1.5	-110 @ BetMGM	7.2%	59.6%
Mercury vs. Valkyries	Valkyries ML	-122 @ FanDuel	7.0%	62%
Storm vs. Sun	Sun ML	+105 @ BetMGM	5.9%	54.7%
Mercury vs. Valkyries	Valkyries -1.5	-110 @ DraftKings	3.7%	56.1%
Aces vs. Sparks	Aces ML	-142 @ DraftKings	2.3%	61%

List of upcoming WNBA games to bet on [5/10/2026]

• Storm vs. Sun (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Liberty vs. Mystics (3:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Aces vs. Sparks (6:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Mercury vs. Valkyries (8:30PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our WNBA best bets are locked and loaded for May 10, 2026, featuring plays such as Liberty ML and Liberty -5.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.