Best WNBA bets today: Saturday's picks include Mercury vs. Aces play [5/9/2026]

Mercury +9.5 (-110)

• Edge: 12.0%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Matchup: Mercury vs. Aces (3:30PM ET, Saturday)

Our model has identified value on Mercury +9.5 at -110 odds. A 64.4% probability produces an edge of 12.0%, making this the strongest play for today's WNBA slate.

Dream vs. Lynx over 157.5 points (-110)

• Edge: 11.8%
• Probability: 64.2%
• Matchup: Dream vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

Dream vs. Lynx over 157.5 points carries a 11.8% edge and a probability of 64.2% at -110 odds, according to our model.

Mercury ML (+340)

• Edge: 10.7%
• Probability: 33.4%
• Matchup: Mercury vs. Aces (3:30PM ET, Saturday)

Mercury ML at +340 odds shows a 10.7% edge, supported by a 33.4% probability in simulations.

Dream ML (-170)

• Edge: 10.3%
• Probability: 73.3%
• Matchup: Dream vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

A 10.3% edge and 73.3% probability make Dream at the moneyline at a value play in the Dream vs. Lynx matchup, per our model.

Wings vs. Fever under 177.5 points (-110)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 61.5%
• Matchup: Wings vs. Fever (1:00PM ET, Saturday)

Wings vs. Fever under 177.5 points at -110 odds presents a 9.1% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 61.5%.

Dream -3.5 (-114)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 61.5%
• Matchup: Dream vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model finds value on Dream -3.5 at -114 odds, supported by an edge of 8.3%.

Fever ML (-245)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 75.9%
• Matchup: Wings vs. Fever (1:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model has uncovered value on Fever ML at -245 odds. A 75.9% probability produces a 4.9% edge, making this a strong play for today's WNBA action.

Sky ML (-225)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 72.8%
• Matchup: Sky vs. Fire (9:00PM ET, Saturday)

A 3.5% edge on a 72.8% probability makes Sky to win at -225 odds a solid value play in today's Sky vs. Fire matchup.

Sky -5.5 (-110)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 55%
• Matchup: Sky vs. Fire (9:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model projects value on Sky -5.5 at -110 odds. A 55% probability produces a 2.6% edge, making Sky the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

WNBA best bets summary: Saturday, 5/9/2026

As of 7:36AM ET, here are our top WNBA bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Mercury vs. Aces	Mercury +9.5	-110 @ BetMGM	12.0%	64.4%
Dream vs. Lynx	Over 157.5 Points	-110 @ BetMGM	11.8%	64.2%
Mercury vs. Aces	Mercury ML	+340 @ BetMGM	10.7%	33.4%
Dream vs. Lynx	Dream ML	-170 @ BetMGM	10.3%	73.3%
Wings vs. Fever	Under 177.5 Points	-110 @ DraftKings	9.1%	61.5%
Dream vs. Lynx	Dream -3.5	-114 @ FanDuel	8.3%	61.5%
Wings vs. Fever	Fever ML	-245 @ DraftKings	4.9%	75.9%
Sky vs. Fire	Sky ML	-225 @ BetMGM	3.5%	72.8%
Sky vs. Fire	Sky -5.5	-110 @ FanDuel	2.6%	55%

List of upcoming WNBA games to bet on [5/9/2026]

• Wings vs. Fever (1:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Mercury vs. Aces (3:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Dream vs. Lynx (8:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Sky vs. Fire (9:00PM ET, Saturday)

Conclusion

Our WNBA best bets are locked and loaded for May 9, 2026, featuring plays such as Mercury +9.5 and over 157.5 points in the Dream vs. Lynx matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.