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Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs prediction: Hawks favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 5 matchup [4/11/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs predictions for AFL Saturday.
AFL action continues on Saturday at 5:35 AM ET as the Western Bulldogs take on the Hawthorn Hawks at Adelaide Oval.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Bulldogs vs. Hawks game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Hawks vs. Bulldogs prediction: Who will win Round 5 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's AFL game between the Bulldogs and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 60% chance of beating the Bulldogs.
According to our model, the Hawks (-6.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bulldogs | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +125 | -161 |
| Line (Spread) | +6.5 (-115) | -6.5 (-115) |
| Total | o178.5 (-115) | u178.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bulldogs vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -6.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -161 |
| Total | Under 178.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Bulldogs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Hawks and Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to commence at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks
- Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: Adelaide Oval
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Bulldogs in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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