Mystics vs. Sun prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [6/26/2026]
Get Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Friday.
The Connecticut Sun and Washington Mystics are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Mohegan Sun Arena on Friday, with tipoff at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model predicts the Mystics as the most likely winner of the Mystics vs. Sun game.
The Sun, who have star players like Brittney Griner, Leila Lacan and Aaliyah Edwards, will face off against the Mystics, featuring Sonia Citron, Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Mystics vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our independent predictive model gives the Mystics a 63.2% chance of defeating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+3.5) have a 52.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 164.5-point over/under has a 53.3% chance of going over,.
Mystics vs. Sun odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mystics | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.5 (-125) | +3.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -178 | +155 |
| Total | o164.5 (-110) | u164.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mystics vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun +3.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mystics | -178 |
| Total | Over 164.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +3.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mystics vs. Sun player props
WNBA prop bets are an enjoyable way to wager on the Washington vs. Connecticut matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Sonia Citron is expected to lead the Mystics with 17 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Brittney Griner is projected to have 12 points, 5 rebounds and 1 assists for the Sun.
When evaluating the first basket market, Brittney Griner is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.7% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Mystics prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mystics are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonia Citron | 17 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Shakira Austin | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 37 |
| Kiki Iriafen | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 31 |
| M. Onyenwere | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Lauren Betts | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 24 |
| Leila Lacan | 11 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 27 |
| Aaliyah Edwards | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 |
| Diamond Miller | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
| Kennedy Burke | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Mystics vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Sun and Mystics at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Friday, June 26, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Mystics, with a 63.2% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
