Canucks vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [11/16/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Vancouver Canucks are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday, with puck drop at 5:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Canucks vs. Lightning game.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Canucks vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Sunday's clash between the Canucks and Lightning.

According to our model, the Canucks (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

Canucks vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canucks	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-185)	-1.5 (+154)
Moneyline	+126	-148
Total	o6.5 (-115)	u6.5 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canucks vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning -1.5	+154
Moneyline	Lightning	-148
Total	Under 6.5	-102

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

Canucks vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Canucks vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canucks vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 41.8% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Vancouver Canucks

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brock Boeser	33.2%
Kiefer Sherwood	31.3%
Jake DeBrusk	30.3%
Conor Garland	26.1%
Evander Kane	25.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	41.8%
Nikita Kucherov	40.4%
Brayden Point	38.8%
Scott Sabourin	35.0%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	20.6%

First goal scorer predictions

Vancouver Canucks

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake DeBrusk	6.1%
Brock Boeser	6.1%
Evander Kane	5.6%
Kiefer Sherwood	5.5%
Conor Garland	5.1%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	8.6%
Brayden Point	8.4%
Nikita Kucherov	8.2%
Scott Sabourin	7.1%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	3.3%

Canucks vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Lightning and Canucks at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 5:00PM ET.

• Who: Vancouver Canucks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 5:00PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

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Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Canucks on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canucks vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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