Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Black Friday NHL matchup [11/28/2025]

NHL action continues on Black Friday at 5:00PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs square off with the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Capitals as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals game.

This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Caps prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Friday's clash between the Maple Leafs and Capitals.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Capitals a 58% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Capitals
Puck Line	+1.5 (-170)	-1.5 (+154)
Moneyline	+142	-166
Total	o6.5 (+114)	u6.5 (-135)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-170
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+142
Total	Over 6.5	+114

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs +1.5 at the spread.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Matthews a 44.4% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 10.0% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	44.4%
John Tavares	35.3%
Matthew Knies	28.1%
Bobby McMann	17.8%
Nicholas Robertson	16.9%

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	36.2%
Tom Wilson	32.7%
Aliaksei Protas	29.7%
Dylan Strome	29.4%
Jakob Chychrun	23.8%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	10.0%
John Tavares	7.1%
Matthew Knies	5.1%
Nicholas Robertson	3.7%
Bobby McMann	3.2%

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Alex Ovechkin	6.8%
Tom Wilson	6.2%
Aliaksei Protas	5.5%
Dylan Strome	5.3%
Jakob Chychrun	4.1%

Maple Leafs vs. Caps game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Capitals and Maple Leafs at Capital One Arena is scheduled to commence at 5:00PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Friday, November 28, 2025 (Black Friday)
• Time: 5:00PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

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Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Black Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Capitals insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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