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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals NHL game on November 28, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Maple Leafs
2
4
Nov 28, 10PM Capital One Arena
Capitals
Nov 28, 10PM Capital One Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
1102
Capitals
0134
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Maple LeafsTOR
Win %
0%
100%
CapitalsWSH
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
1102
Capitals
0134
P3 19:58 Goal scored by Tom Wilson
P3 19:25 Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Logan Thompson
P3 19:10 Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
P3 19:03 Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 18:34 Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P3 17:14 Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 17:04 John Carlson shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P3 16:04 Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by Ryan Leonard and Connor McMichael
P3 15:48 Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Easton Cowan
P3 15:34 Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P3 15:33 Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Logan Thompson
P3 15:23 Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Logan Thompson
P3 14:56 Shot missed by Scott Laughton
P3 13:16 Goal scored by Anthony Beauvillier assisted by Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome
P3 13:09 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 12:07 Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 12:06 Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:50 Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:36 Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:08 Tom Wilson shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:58
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brandon Duhaime in neutral zone
P3 19:58
GOAL
Goal scored by Tom Wilson
2-4
P3 19:34
Oliver Ekman-Larsson credited with hit on Tom Wilson in neutral zone
P3 19:27
Connor McMichael won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 19:27
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 19:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Logan Thompson
P3 19:10
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
P3 19:03
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 18:34
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P3 18:31
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 18:31
Stoppage - Icing - Visitor Timeout
P3 18:09
Matthew Knies credited with hit on Tom Wilson in neutral zone
P3 17:30
Jake McCabe credited with hit on Anthony Beauvillier in neutral zone
P3 17:14
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 17:04
SHOT
John Carlson shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P3 16:14
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P3 16:14
Stoppage - Offside
P3 16:04
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
P3 16:04
GOAL
Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by Ryan Leonard and Connor McMichael
2-3
P3 15:48
SHOT
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Easton Cowan
P3 15:34
SHOT
Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P3 15:33
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Logan Thompson
P3 15:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Logan Thompson
P3 14:56
SHOT
Shot missed by Scott Laughton
P3 14:37
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P3 14:37
Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
P3 13:58
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
P3 13:58
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 13:16
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
P3 13:16
GOAL
Goal scored by Anthony Beauvillier assisted by Alex Ovechkin and Dylan Strome
2-2
P3 13:09
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 12:07
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
P3 12:07
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 12:07
SHOT
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 12:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
P3 12:02
Connor McMichael won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
P3 12:02
Stoppage - Icing
P3 11:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:15
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P3 11:15
Stoppage - Icing
P3 11:08
SHOT
Tom Wilson shot blocked by Matias Maccelli
P3 10:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
P3 09:53
SHOT
Shot missed by Troy Stecher
P3 09:38
SHOT
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Bobby McMann
P3 09:34
Ethen Frank won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
P3 09:34
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 08:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 08:56
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P3 08:56
Stoppage
P3 08:34
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
P3 08:34
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 08:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
P3 08:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Joseph Woll
P3 07:26
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P3 07:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Joseph Woll
P3 07:16
SHOT
Shot missed by Dakota Joshua
P3 06:39
SHOT
Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
P3 06:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Logan Thompson
P3 06:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Logan Thompson
P3 06:01
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P3 06:01
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P3 05:34
SHOT
Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:32
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P3 05:32
Stoppage
P3 05:28
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
P3 03:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
P3 03:38
SHOT
Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
P3 03:37
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P3 03:37
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 03:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 03:21
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Logan Thompson
P3 03:12
SHOT
Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
P3 03:05
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in defensive zone
P3 03:05
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 03:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Easton Cowan
P3 02:55
SHOT
Shot missed by Easton Cowan
P3 02:40
SHOT
Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Logan Thompson
P3 02:09
SHOT
Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Auston Matthews
P3 01:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
P3 01:37
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tom Wilson in defensive zone
P3 01:37
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 01:31
SHOT
Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 01:14
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
P3 01:09
SHOT
Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
P3 00:00
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P2 18:37
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P2 18:37
Stoppage - Icing
P2 17:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
P2 17:48
Simon Benoit credited with hit on Ryan Leonard in defensive zone
P2 17:47
SHOT
Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
P2 17:28
SHOT
Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P2 17:08
SHOT
Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Matthew Knies
P2 16:50
SHOT
Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Matthew Knies
P2 16:41
SHOT
Shot missed by Maple Leafs
P2 16:22
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Joseph Woll
P2 15:29
Dylan Strome won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 15:29
Stoppage - Icing
P2 14:59
Matias Maccelli credited with hit on Matt Roy in offensive zone
P2 14:47
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P2 14:47
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 14:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
P2 14:22
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P2 14:22
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 14:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
P2 14:13
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
P2 13:53
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
P2 13:53
Stoppage - Icing
P2 13:18
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
P2 13:18
GOAL
Goal scored by Connor McMichael
2-1
P2 13:16
SHOT
Connor McMichael shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P2 13:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 13:05
SHOT
Tom Wilson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P2 13:04
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 12:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor McMichael
P2 11:54
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P2 11:35
SHOT
Shot missed by Easton Cowan
P2 11:29
SHOT
John Tavares shot blocked by Dylan Strome
P2 11:26
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
P2 10:43
SHOT
Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Hendrix Lapierre
P2 10:24
Jake McCabe credited with hit on Sonny Milano in defensive zone
P2 10:01
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in defensive zone
P2 10:01
Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
P2 09:56
Sonny Milano won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
P2 09:56
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 09:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
P2 09:31
Matthew Knies credited with hit on John Carlson in neutral zone
P2 09:05
Nicholas Robertson won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
P2 09:05
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P2 09:01
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
P2 08:46
Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
P2 08:46
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 08:44
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
P2 08:41
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P2 08:41
Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
P2 08:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Logan Thompson
P2 08:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Logan Thompson
P2 07:48
John Tavares credited with hit on Connor McMichael in offensive zone
P2 07:37
Connor McMichael won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 07:37
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 07:23
SHOT
Shot missed by Dakota Mermis
P2 07:12
Bobby McMann credited with hit on Sonny Milano in offensive zone
P2 06:16
Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
P2 06:16
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 06:14
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Joseph Woll
P2 05:30
Power play - Anthony Beauvillier won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P2 05:30
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 05:28
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P2 04:47
Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
P2 04:47
Stoppage - Offside
P2 04:31
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P2 03:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
P2 03:06
SHOT
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Matt Roy
P2 02:53
John Tavares won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
P2 02:53
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P2 02:49
John Tavares won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
P2 02:49
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P2 02:41
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Logan Thompson
P2 01:47
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
P2 01:45
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P2 01:34
SHOT
Power play - Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P2 00:46
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P2 00:41
Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
P2 00:29
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P2 00:17
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
P2 00:17
Stoppage - Icing
P2 00:10
SHOT
Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
P2 00:00
Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor McMichael
P1 18:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dakota Mermis saved by Logan Thompson
P1 17:26
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
P1 17:26
Stoppage - Icing
P1 17:19
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P1 17:19
Stoppage - Icing
P1 17:02
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
P1 17:02
Stoppage - Icing
P1 16:50
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
P1 16:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
P1 16:31
SHOT
Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
P1 15:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Logan Thompson
P1 15:14
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
P1 14:13
SHOT
Bobby McMann shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
P1 12:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Logan Thompson
P1 12:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Joseph Woll
P1 11:35
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P1 10:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
P1 08:25
Easton Cowan credited with hit on Jakob Chychrun in offensive zone
P1 08:18
SHOT
Brandon Duhaime shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P1 08:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Joseph Woll
P1 07:32
SHOT
Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Dakota Mermis
P1 06:41
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P1 06:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 06:26
SHOT
Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P1 06:06
SHOT
Shot missed by John Carlson
P1 05:52
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
P1 05:52
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 05:50
SHOT
Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
P1 05:38
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 05:38
Stoppage - Offside
P1 05:31
SHOT
Shot missed by Simon Benoit
P1 05:11
Hendrix Lapierre won faceoff against Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
P1 05:11
Stoppage - High Stick
P1 05:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Joseph Woll
P1 05:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Joseph Woll
P1 03:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
P1 03:07
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 03:07
GOAL
Goal scored by Morgan Rielly assisted by Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Nicolas Roy
1-0
P1 01:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Connor McMichael
P1 01:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Joseph Woll
P1 01:21
Nicholas Robertson credited with hit on Martin Fehervary in defensive zone
P1 01:17
Brandon Duhaime credited with hit on Troy Stecher in offensive zone
P1 01:14
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
P1 01:14
Stoppage - Icing
P1 01:05
SHOT
Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Joseph Woll
P1 00:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Trevor van Riemsdyk saved by Joseph Woll
P1 00:30
Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
P1 00:30
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 00:21
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
P1 00:21
Stoppage - Video Review
P1 00:21
Stoppage - Net Dislodged Defensive Skater
P1 00:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Joseph Woll
P1 00:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Joseph Woll
P1 00:00
Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
 STATS
Capitals
22Shots on Goal34
59%Faceoff Win %41%
0/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins0
28Hits17
14Shots Blocked12
17Giveaways22
Maple LeafsTOR
CapitalsWSH
22Shots on Goal34
59%Faceoff Win %41%
0/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins0
28Hits17
14Shots Blocked12
17Giveaways22

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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
  • Date: Friday, November 28, 2025
  • Time: 5:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Capital One Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Capitals favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +143, Capitals -166

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 42%
  • Capitals: 58%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 42%, while the Capitals have a win probability of 58%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Capitals are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Capital One Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Capitals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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