Senators vs. Sabres prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 4, 2026

The Buffalo Sabres are favored to beat the Ottawa Senators at KeyBank Center on Wednesday (7:30 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Senators vs. Sabres prediction gives Buffalo a 53.7% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value is on the under 6.5 goals.

Senators vs. Sabres key predictions

• Sabres win probability: 53.7%
• Senators win probability: 46.3%
• Senators +1.5 puck line: 67.7% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 52.5% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Senators vs. Sabres odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets we track. Novig has the best price in every market for this game.

• Senators moneyline: 46¢ (Novig)
• Sabres moneyline: 55¢ (Novig)
• Senators +1.5: 68¢ (Novig)
• Sabres -1.5: 33¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Senators vs. Sabres pick: Under 6.5 (48¢)

Our model makes the Sabres the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 6.5 total goals at 48¢ on Novig.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 48.5%, while our model puts it at 52.5%.

That's a 4.0% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this game.

Senators vs. Sabres goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Tage Thompson of the Sabres leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Wednesday's game at 38.9%, followed by Ottawa's Tim Stutzle (35.2%). Thompson also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 8.0%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Tage Thompson (Sabres): 38.9%
2. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 35.2%
3. Drake Batherson (Senators): 32.0%
4. Jack Quinn (Sabres): 27.5%
5. Shane Pinto (Senators): 27.4%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Tage Thompson (Sabres): 8.0%
2. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 6.7%
3. Drake Batherson (Senators): 6.6%
4. Shane Pinto (Senators): 5.3%
5. Jack Quinn (Sabres): 5.1%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Senators vs. Sabres prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Senators vs. Sabres predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Senators vs. Sabres game details

• Matchup: Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres
• Date: Wednesday, November 4, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: KeyBank Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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