Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for Saturday's NHL matchup [11/29/2025]

NHL action continues on Saturday at 7:00PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs square off with the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Maple Leafs-Penguins matchup.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's Maple Leafs vs. Penguins matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Saturday's clash between the Maple Leafs and Penguins.

Our independent predictive model can't split the two teams, giving both the Maple Leafs and Penguins a 50% chance of winning the game.

According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 71% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Penguins
Puck Line	-1.5 (+225)	+1.5 (-278)
Moneyline	-108	-108
Total	o6.5 (-102)	u6.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs -1.5	+225
Moneyline	Penguins	-108
Total	Under 6.5	-118

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Penguins?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Penguins.

Our projections give Matthews a 40.7% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is an 8.1% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	40.7%
William Nylander	36.2%
John Tavares	33.2%
Matthew Knies	28.3%
Bobby McMann	17.3%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Sidney Crosby	36.0%
Bryan Rust	33.0%
Anthony Mantha	28.5%
Evgeni Malkin	24.3%
Thomas Novak	23.9%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	8.1%
William Nylander	6.9%
John Tavares	6.8%
Matthew Knies	5.2%
Bobby McMann	2.8%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Bryan Rust	6.8%
Sidney Crosby	6.7%
Anthony Mantha	5.3%
Evgeni Malkin	4.7%
Thomas Novak	4.0%

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's action between the Penguins and Maple Leafs at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Saturday, November 29, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

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Conclusion

We predict a close game between the Maple Leafs and Penguins on Saturday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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