Top Five NBA Finals Betting Trends and How to Use Them in Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

The NBA Finals are upon us. the Denver Nuggets who make their first Finals appearance in franchise history, opening as overwhelming -400 favorites over the Miami Heat. Though they may be underdogs by definition, the Heat have proven they can’t be counted out.

We've done an overview of the NBA Finals and a 'Choose Your Own Betting Adventure' style approach to finding the perfect series bet. Now, we're going to look at the five biggest trends we've found for this series, and how you should be using them.

RELATED: Our NBA Finals Game 1 +455 SGP

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Top Five Trends for the NBA Finals

1. Aaron Gordon (DEN) Over 5.5 Rebounds

Frequency: 10 of 15 playoff games
Odds: -110

A 67% hit rate makes Aaron Gordon's Over on rebounds the best trend you can bet on during the Finals. He hit this mark in almost every game prior to the Western Conference Finals series with the Lakers in which he reached it just once. This likely was a result of Nikola Jokic banging the boards in his matchup with Anthony Davis. Shutting down Jokic will be the Heat's primary focus, opening more opportunities for Gordon.

How to bet it: Straight up. -110 is a great price for a prop with a near 70% hit rate.

2. Max Strus (MIA) Under 0.5 Turnovers

Frequency: 15 of 18 playoff games (9 of last 10)
Odds: -160

Sturs has only committed 5 total turnovers in the playoffs and has only done so in just three games. He didn't cough up the ball once in seven games with the Celtics. For a player seeing as much usage as Strus, this is a great number. He's much more of a shooter than a passer, so he's not likely to find himself in many situations where he'll make an errant pass.

How to bet it: Parlay piece. -150 isn't insane juice but it is a little heavier than we like to lay on straight bets. Pair this with a "gimme leg" like Nikola Jokic 20+ Points to reduce your juice.

3. Jimmy Butler (MIA) Over 7.5 Rebounds

Frequency: 8 of 18 playoff games (8 of last 15)
Odds: +115

This isn't the most consistent trend, but Jimmy Butler is going to be all over the court in the Finals. He is the Heat's best player and they'll need every ounce of his talent to stay competitive. The more competitive the series, the more frequently he hits this mark. 

How to bet it: Straight up or Jimmy Butler Double-Double (+245). This is again great value on a play with this hit rate. Butler has recorded a DD four times in these playoffs and one board or assist short three other times.

4. Nikola Jokic (DEN) Over 9.5 Assists 

Frequency: 9 of 15 playoff games (6 of last 7)
Odds: -150

Yes, our model is actually fading Nikola Jokic for the first time in weeks, projecting him for just 7.5 assists in this one. You're getting his Under at plus money, so our model has identified a major 16% edge in the odds. However, looking at the bigger picture, we can get immense value in The Joker's Overs with how he dishes.

How to bet it: Ladder play baby! There's no point betting Over 9.5 Assists for -150 when you can get 12+ (+210), 13+ (+285) and14+ (+600). The Joker has hit 12+ in five of his last six.

5. Bam Adebayo (MIA) Over 0.5 Blocks

Frequency: 11 of 18 playoff games (6 of last 9)
Odds: -150

Bam is the Heat's primary defender in the paint. He'll undoubtedly have some opportunities to poke a Jokic layup loose or stuff a Nuggets guard driving the lane. Pairing this throughout the series should prove to be profitable.

How to bet it: Parlay piece. Pair this with Bam to get 10+ Points or 8+ Rebounds to bring down the odds.

Be sure to check back for more NBA Finals betting content before Game 1 tips off on Thursday night!