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Rays vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Saturday.
MLB action continues on Saturday at 4:10 PM ET as the Tampa Bay Rays square off with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Payton Tolle (1-1, 2.04 ERA) will start for the Red Sox, up against Nick Martinez (3-1, 1.71 ERA) for the Rays.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the Rays vs. Red Sox game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Rays vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Rays and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Red Sox a 58% chance of beating the Rays.
According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the run line, while the 8-run over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Rays vs. Red Sox odds [5/9/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-175) | -1.5 (+146) |
| Moneyline | +126 | -148 |
| Total | o8 (-102) | u8 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rays vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Red Sox -1.5 | +146 |
| Moneyline | Rays | +126 |
| Total | Over 8 | -102 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rays vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Rays at Fenway Park is scheduled to commence at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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