Lightning vs. Red Wings prediction: Tampa Bay favored to win Black Friday NHL matchup [11/28/2025]

The Detroit Red Wings will face the Tampa Bay Lightning in NHL Black Friday action at Little Caesars Arena on Friday, beginning at 12:00PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Red Wings game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lightning vs. Red Wings prediction: Who will win and cover?

As part of Dimers' NHL predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, puck line, and over/under probabilities for Friday's clash between the Lightning and Red Wings.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 55% chance of beating the Red Wings.

According to our model, the Red Wings (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.

Lightning vs. Red Wings odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lightning	Red Wings
Puck Line	-1.5 (+200)	+1.5 (-225)
Moneyline	-125	+110
Total	o6.5 (+108)	u6.5 (-118)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Red Wings picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning -1.5	+200
Moneyline	Lightning	-125
Total	Under 6.5	-118

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning -1.5 at the spread.

Lightning vs. Red Wings player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Red Wings?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Red Wings.

Our projections give Guentzel a 43.1% chance of scoring a goal at Little Caesars Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	43.1%
Nikita Kucherov	37.4%
Brandon Hagel	36.5%
Anthony Cirelli	27.9%
Nick Paul	24.5%

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Dylan Larkin	36.2%
Alex DeBrincat	35.4%
Lucas Raymond	29.2%
Patrick Kane	21.9%
Marco Kasper	18.7%

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	8.9%
Brandon Hagel	7.4%
Nikita Kucherov	7.4%
Anthony Cirelli	5.5%
Nick Paul	4.6%

Detroit Red Wings

Player	First Goal Probability
Dylan Larkin	7.9%
Alex DeBrincat	7.1%
Lucas Raymond	5.6%
Patrick Kane	3.4%
Marco Kasper	3.1%

Lightning vs. Red Wings game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Red Wings and Lightning at Little Caesars Arena is scheduled to commence at 12:00PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings
• Date: Friday, November 28, 2025 (Black Friday)
• Time: 12:00PM ET/9:00AM PT
• Venue: Little Caesars Arena

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Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Red Wings on Black Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Red Wings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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