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Cardinals vs. Padres prediction: San Diego favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres predictions for MLB Thursday.
The San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals will lock horns in MLB action at Petco Park on Thursday, starting at 10:10 PM ET.
Michael King (3-2, 2.95 ERA) will start on the mound for the Padres, while the Cardinals have opted for Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.50 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Padres as the most likely winner of the Cardinals vs. Padres game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cardinals vs. Padres prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Padres, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Padres a 60% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 51% chance of going over.
Cardinals vs. Padres odds [5/7/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Cardinals | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Moneyline | +144 | -160 |
| Total | o8 (-110) | u8 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Padres picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Padres -1.5 | +135 |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | +144 |
| Total | Over 8 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Padres -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cardinals vs. Padres game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB game between the Padres and Cardinals at Petco Park is scheduled to begin at 10:10 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Time: 10:10 PM ET/7:10PM PT
- Venue: Petco Park
Conclusion
We predict the Padres, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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