Prospector Sam's Nuggets – The 2021 Masters and English Premier League Picks: Betting picks, odds and promotions

Prospector Sam's Nuggets  – The 2021 Masters and English Premier League Picks: Betting picks, odds and promotions

When one door closes, another door opens.

I’m not one to get all proverbial (or even very deep at all), but that phrase was the first thing that come to mind this week, with College Basketball ending Monday but the Masters starting on Thursday. Normally, when most Majors come around, I try to do a full write up on the course and what players will be facing in their quest for glory. Obviously I don’t need to do that for the Masters, since every sports fan in the world would close this article if I started explaining what Amen Corner was, so we can just skip it this time around. 

That means we can start off today on an entirely unrelated issue, and I’ve had a topic on the mind that I want to dive into. On Saturday, I was blocked for the first time on Twitter (at least that I know of). While I really don’t care at all what most people think of me, nor do I spend a lot of time trying to piss people off on social media, Sometimes I just can’t fucking help myself from making snarky comments when I see people writing stupid things. As somebody who peddles in sports takes and gambling opinions, I understand there is a range of ideas and beliefs people have and that not everyone will agree with me. But, while I have a pretty broad standard for what qualifies as “different than what I think but still a legitimate take,” I have about zero patience for what I consider to be outside of that range. As a high school teacher once told me, trying to shame me into being more patient (but unknowingly complimenting my messed up brain), “you don’t suffer fools well.” 

Now, I’m not going to get into who it was that blocked me, or what was said. It doesn’t really matter at all. The bigger issue for me is, how should anyone (and how should I) deal with people who openly disagree with me. Shockingly, I don’t get a lot of trolling from my 565 twitter followers, since most people don’t rally give a fuck about the cartoon screaming in the corner of the internet. But, presumably (if this experiment works out), I’ll end up with more followers eventually. And after some deep though, or at least as much depth as I’m capable of, I pretty much committed to the idea that I will never block anyone, and nobody really should. 

I throw out a lot of takes, and I operate in a business where I’m giving predictions that are wrong all the fucking time. In fact, I expose myself in that area more than almost any handicapper you see on social media, because I write out my full reasoning for picks every time I make them. That looks really great when I’m right, but also makes me look really stupid when I’m wrong. At the end of the day though, I’m here because I love sports and gambling, and want to share that passion, and my writing, with the world (or whoever the fuck cares). And if I start blocking out people for disagreeing with me, or even for mocking me when I’m wrong, I would just be cutting out opportunities to hear other people’s thoughts and engage more with people who care about this stuff like me. So, all that is basically just an invitation to abuse me, because I will never fucking stop you. I’m making a firm commitment to never block anyone. That means, when I inevitably make my next terrible pick, you can call me a pickle-brained muppet or whatever else comes to mind, and I’ll be right here for it. It may not be my favorite part of this gig, but doing anything else would just be wrong. 

With that, Nuggets! 🔽

⛏️ One last chance to talk CBB means it gets first dibs here. You will be greatly missed. 

⛏️ If you’d told me that only one of the two games was going to be a terrible blowout and the other was going to be an OT buzzer beater, I would have never guessed Houston-Baylor would be the blowout 

⛏️ It's a testament to Baylor and how good they are, because they completely manhandled Houston from tip to final whistle. It was great to see the real Baylor back, because they looked a bit lost after their Covid pause. 

⛏️ That said, I felt fairly dumb after the game for picking Houston. The score alone was enough to do that, but even when I was making my pick my brain was screaming “THIS TEAM HASN’T BEATEN A SINGLE DIGIT SEED.” I even wrote that very fact in my analysis. Shame on me for ignoring it. 

⛏️ On to the real game, what a blast UCLA-Gonzaga was. Everyone and their mother has talked about it, so there isn’t much else to say. I’ll just leave it with my one thought after; I’ve watched a ton of CBB, and I still have games that were more fun for me to watch as a Syracuse fan, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a “better” game of CBB (giving weight to how meaningful the game was) 

⛏️ And then the Championship. I’ll avoid tearing Gonzaga to pieces because, at this point, it is what it is. Gonzaga may have been too tired, may just not been good enough, or Baylor may have played out of their minds. Or maybe a bit of each. At the end of the day, it was just a disappointing game for everyone (unless you were smart enough to bet Baylor heavily) 

⛏️ I ended the tournament 19-15 against the spread. Decent, but not as great as I want to be. 

⛏️ On to the Prem. Jeez, I had a tough weekend on the boards. I came out barely ahead, but I got fucking killed by heartbreaking moments all over the place. Coulda been great if a couple more things just broke right. 

⛏️ That started with Chelsea in the first game. What in the fuck were you thinking Silva? This game was set up exactly the way we needed – slow and a slim Chelsea lead. Then that bonehead got sent off and the whole game fell apart. Chelsea losing by 3 to West Brom was fun though, I will admit 

⛏️ Sheffield lost again. I just want to keep writing it to shame them for their output this season 

⛏️ City-Leicester was a decent game, but the Foxes looked a little outclassed and never really made a push to win. I expected a little more offense from them, and it was disappointing to see them just bunker in all game 

⛏️ It also didn’t fucking work, and the over missed. Shout out to Mahrez for fluffing a breakaway in the 85th to fuck me on that one. 

⛏️ At least Liverpool-Arsenal went as planned. Like I said, Arsenal are just a step down in class from the big clubs.  

⛏️ I had no plans to mention Burnley-Southampton, but what a fucking game. Down 2 15 minutes in and the Saints win 3-2. Respect where deserved, that was an impressive comeback. 

⛏️ Tottenham is pain. I am pain. I have nothing else to say. The over hit, so you’re welcome I guess? I just don’t know how they can continue to hurt me this bad. 

⛏️ Then I got to immediately experience gambling heartbreak, as Fulham crumbled like a fucking sand castle in the last 15 minutes. I had been rooting for them not to get relegated up until now. I’m not so sure any more. 

⛏️ Man U won. Of course they did. Stupid United. 

⛏️ Everton decided to pull a Spurs and throw away 3 points in the last 10 minutes. I feel your pain, guys, let me know if you need a hug. 

⛏️ Thank you to West Ham for hitting the over before half time. I was really hoping that they would also blow consecutive 3 goal leads, but Wolves just didn’t quite have enough in them 

⛏️ Champions League Tuesday was a taste of how great the run in of this competition can be. I’ll start with Liverpool taking a golden opportunity to beat Real and falling flat on their face. Madrid were missing both starting center backs, and the game looked like a toss up before kickoff. Then Real came out and dismantled Liverpool anyway.  

⛏️ Poor Dortmund. All that hard work and a late equalizer just to piss it away with a 90th minute lapse. Still, 2-1 away isn’t all bad and the return leg should be top quality soccer for 2 hours. 

⛏️ Not a good Champions League day for me. Bayern’s defense looked like it was made of Swiss cheese, and a loss to PSG in Germany is ugly. They can overcome it, but itll be tough 

⛏️ Oh, and Jesus. Chelsea won, because of course. Lose by 3 to WBA and beat Porto within a week. I’m never betting their games again 

⛏️ It was nice to have the MLB back. I don’t often sit down and just watch a full 4-hour game, but I flipped on a couple innings here and there to fill some time, and it was fun to watch. But.... 

⛏️ As a Red Sox fan, it was not so fun. Getting swept at home by the Orioles is about the worst way to start a season as I can think of. 

⛏️ The Mets aren’t in last! Mostly because their whole first series got canceled, but not in last. That’s a win for them. 

⛏️ Once again, I’ll carefully tiptoe through an important sports event that I feel I can’t ignore. Moving the All-Star Game from Atlanta sucks, because it indiscriminately punishes fans for a decision they didn’t actively take part in. It also feels like sports, which I view as a break from all of the problems of normal life, is wading pretty damn deep into the world of politics and that scares me (regardless of what you believe). I won’t say more on the reasoning for the move or whether the decision was “right”, because actively try to not talk about politics here, but I will say I feel bad for Atlanta baseball fans. 

⛏️ Keith Olbermann, being the idiot that he is, followed that news up by calling for everyone to stop viewing and broadcasting the Masters. What a world we live in. 

⛏️ That enough? Yeah, lets move on form the appetizer to the meat and potatoes. Picks!  

Masters Tournament - Wikipedia The Masters


This is going to go a little bit different than how I normally write picks. As I’ve mentioned before, betting golf isn’t a go-to for me. I require instant gratification (or pain), so I rarely bet anything that doesn’t end within 24 hours. But Majors are different. I follow golf regularly, and when the big boys come around I can’t fucking help but put some money down. I’m still not a big fan of betting the winner in golf, because I just hate the idea of picking one person from an 88-man field, but I’ll throw some picks out that I think are worth the money.  

As an added note, I’m not going to be dropping in strokes gained putting or ball rotational velocity stats or anything like that. I follow those numbers loosely, but I think that there’s often too much reliance from gamblers on obscure stats that don’t always correspond well to weekly selections. I focus on a few skillsets that I find important, like strokes gained putting and ball striking, but if you’re looking for a super analytical and mathematic reasoning, I’m just not going to be the man for you. The good news is, there are a ton of other people who will do that and I wont take it personally if that’s your bag, so feel free to hop elsewhere if you want something different.  

 

🤝 Tournament Match Bets (Via FanDuel Sportsbook)  


Thomas-Spieth
: This bet is going to come up extremely often, and you’re going to see every handicapper give their two cents on it. I guess I can’t resist following the herd on that one, because I love Spieth here. Jordan has had a fairly well documented fall and then rise back to prominence, which culminated with a win at the Valero Texas Open on Sunday. Like most players, Jordan is streaky, and he is prone to long bouts of poor play. However, at his peak, he’s a top 5 player in the world with one of the best short games around. Picking him over Thomas, who’s playing well in his own right, isn’t easy, but when Spieth is on his game he’s probably a bit better than JT. Thomas has won just 1 major to Spieth’s 3, and Speith has performed well at Augusta in the past including winning a Green Jacket. With those factors all considered, Spieth has to be the pick here for me. He plays with emotion and feeds off the positive energy he brings. After a win last week, that energy will be as high as ever, and I think he outdoes his good pal. 

💰 Pick: Speith (+108) 


Rahm-McIlroy
: Trying to make heads or tails of McIlroy these days is close to a pure guessing game. He still has the talent to be the best golfer in the world, but he just can’t seem to put it together. On any given week, he’s as liable to compete for the cut line as he is for the trophy. But the thing he has going for him in this matchup is that Rahm just had a kid. On Sunday, to be exact. And while Rahm will be able to make it to Augusta with plenty of time to spare, I think a momentous life occasion is not a benefit to him when it comes to playing golf. At their best, most golf players operate by pushing everything else out of their mind and focusing solely on the game. While Rahm isn’t worried about changing diapers or feeding his son, he’s going through one of the most important events in any person’s life, and that will be part of his mental state whether he tries to block it out or not. It may be a silly thing to bet based on, but I think he struggles a bit, and Rory does well enough to overcome him. McIlroy’s best start in recent memory was the November Masters, where he finished in the Top 5, and he still needs this one to compete the career grand slam. I think that gets him more focused for this one, and I’m betting on the Northern Irishman. 

💰 Pick: McIlroy (+120) 


Reed-Hov
land: I’ll be the first to tell you that I’m biased against Patrick Reed. I’m not saying anyone else has to draw major conclusions about whether they should like him or if he’s a cheater, but I do personally. And in a sport where players have increasingly become friendly with each other over the last couple of decades, its pretty telling that he is still plainly disliked by almost everyone. BUT, he plays well at Augusta. He finished 10th in November, and has won the whole thing before. Vikto Hovland is star of the future (and arguably even now), but his best finish at the Masters is 32nd and he hasn’t played this course as often as you need to to have a grip on all of the nuances. In a few years he very well may be competing for a win here, but he doesn’t have his game together enough to compete this time around. I think Reed outdoes him comfortably. 

💰 Pick: Reed (-122) 


Berger-Im
One of the biggest stories going into the November Masters was the fact that Daniel Berger, who was as hot as any player towards the end of the season, didn’t have a spot in the field because it was based on who qualified in April. It was the right decision too, because doing anything else would have been a logistical nightmare, but that didn’t stop dear old Daniel from complaining about it everywhere. Meanwhile, Sungjae Im causally went out and tied for second place as Berger watched from his couch. Not only is Berger playing this course for the first time (at least competitively), he also has the added pressure to perform after all the talk. I think that’s a problem for him. We also saw another player, Bryson DeChambeau, run his mouth before the last Masters and it came back to bite him in the ass on the course. Augusta National is hard enough as it is, so adding any extra challenges generally isn’t a good idea. Berger has carried some good form into the new year, winning at Pebble and finishing 9th and the Players, but I see him underperforming. He isn’t particularly long off the tee, and he prefers a fade which isn’t great for a righty at Augusta. I expect Im builds off his last start and performs well this time too, and ends up higher on the leaderboard. 

💰 Pick: Im (-102) 


Zalatoris-Rose
: Will Zalatoris is one of the big rising stars on the Tour. Since Graduating from Wake Forest in 2018, he’s been on a path towards the highest levels of the game, and has performed well in his first season in the big leagues. But, he’s still extremely green and has played in just one major so far in his career. That experience matters, especially in a place like Augusta. This matchup pairs him against Justin Rose, who’s on a downward trajectory in his career and hasn’t looked even close to the golfer he was at his peak. But Rose is still one of the best ball strikers in the world, and he performed decently in November (23rd). I don’t know that I necessarily like him to shock the world and pull out a Top 5, but I like him here mostly because I think its still a bit too much too soon for Zalatoris. Much like Hovland, he could be chasing trophies at majors in a few years, but I think he experiencing some growing pains this time out. 

💰 Pick: Rose (+120) 


Wolff-Mickelson
Mickelson has basically admitted that his time has come. He’s competed in some Senior Tour events, and you’ll see less and less of him over the next few years until he fades into golf irrelevance. Matt Wolff, meanwhile, is building up towards the top of the game, and has the tools to make it to the top soon. He was the 54-hole leader at the last US Open, and his game is extremely strong. His biggest asset, arguably, is his distance, which can get him into trouble with his accuracy issues but also sets himself up to take advantage of Par 5s. At a course where those holes are crucial to scoring, I think he has the game to make up for his mistakes and do some damage here if he puts it all together. He struggled heavily in November and missed the cut, but he’s taken a lot of time off in the last month to get healthy and prepare for this, and I think he could surprise some people this week. Especially “facing” a Mickelson that isn’t fully there, I think he handles this matchup easily. 

💰 Pick: Wolff (-126) 


🔟 The Masters Top 10
 


Bryson DeC
hambeau (+105)Last time out, the Bryson experiment failed. He made some absurd claims about par being 67 for him at Augusta, melted down when things got hairy, and the week was pretty much a disaster for him. That said, his distance is still a game changer and he’ll benefit from not heaping on 500x the pressure in 2021 that he did in 2020 by running his mouth. Sometimes, you need to be humbled to get yourself straight, and that certainly happened to Bryson. I expect he plays with a little more brains and a little less brawn when its necessary, and then uses his length to tear up scoring opportunities. I don’t love him enough to start making winner bets on him, but I think he has too much talent and form right now not to be peaking around the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.  

Matthew Wolff (+900)I’m not going to rehash the stuff I just said, but Wolff is a damn good golfer who is ready to win big tournaments soon. How soon? That’s hard to say, but he was in contention at the US Open and his length makes him a threat on any given week. He’s a bit of a boom or bust option in the sense that he’s liable to get squirrely with his driver and end up in bad places, but Augusta isn’t all that penal off the tee which will help him. Obviously a lot will depend on how he putts and chips, but I think he starts showing up near the top of the leaderboards in majors a lot over then next couple years. I like him to make it into the Top 10. 

🔥 The Masters Top 20  


Rory McIlroy
 (-160): McIlroy’s game isn’t buttoned up enough for me to feel great about a really high finish. I think he needs to get more consistency in his swing before he can walk away with a trophy, and he’s just too prone to stringing together multiple bad holes. But he’s also too good, and too good at this course, to start falling down the leaderboard, and his 5th place showing in November proves that. He’s good money for a Top 20. 

Patrick Reed (+115): Reed doesn’t quite qualify as a horse for the course, but he does play well at Augusta and knows how to work his way around comfortably at this point. That showed in November, when he posted 4 cards at even or below and made his way to a 10th place finish that could have been better if he made a few putts he should have. His recent form isn’t good enough to get too aggressive, but he’s a solid bet to get close to the top and at positive odds I love the value.  

Tommy Fleetwood (+155): Back to somebody I haven’t already talked about, Fleetwood is a great golfer who’s starting to fly a bit under the radar after a stretch where he was regularly in contention at majors. He’s a dark horse to make a push in one of them this year, and he’s been solid at Augusta as of late. In his last 3 starts, he’s finished 17, 36 and 19, which shows he knows how to play well at the Masters and may even be primed to step up and go lower. Fleetwood hasn’t had a great year, but he performed well at the Dell Match Play and is an extremely good ball striker. If he gets even a little bit hot with the putter, he could be in contention and I think, at +155, he’s a good value for Top 20. 

🏌️ MASTERS HUB 🏌️

🔪 Expert picks for The Masters 🤑 Prop bets for The Masters
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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League
 


Leeds-City
: This total is crazy. I fully understand that Leeds are defensive dumpsterfire liable to give up 6 goals in this game. That said, they only average about 1.5 goals against per game which isn’t totally horrendous. Oh, and their opponent averages about .7, which leaves us at an expected goals conceded closer to 2.2. Granted, that number comes out closer to 3.5 for goals scored per game, but if you expect Leeds to put away more than a goal against this City defense than I also have a bridge I’d like to sell you. Basically, this game boils down to just how badly are City going to beat Leeds; and, while they had some serious defensive flaws early in the year, Leeds have straightened themselves out a bit and have only given up 2 (or more) goals in one of their last 6 matches. On the other side, City have played fairly methodically over the last month, with the title pretty much in hand already, and don’t look all that inspired to go out and beat teams into the ground. That showed against a Leicester team over the weekend, who basically sat back and welcomed pressure while City passed a lot but never went for the throat. So, at -146 for under 3.5 goals, this line feels really good. Why 3.5 in stead of 2.5? Well, while I like the value at under 2.5 as well, winning is more important than cutting it close for more money. I think 2-0 and 3-0 are both very plausible scorelines, so I live the safety that 3.5 gives us. And, at -146, it’s a much better payout than you normally see for the 3.5 goal total, which I rarely ever touch since the under would normally be in the -200s. Its not a sexy bet and its not going to pay out huge, but its great value for what you’re buying.  

💰 Pick: Under 3.5 (-146) 


Burnley-Newcastle: There was a stretch of games somewhere around December and January where scoring on Burnley was like trying to break down the Great Wall of China with a rubber mallet. But this side has gotten sloppy and loose over the last month or so, and they haven’t kept a clean sheet since February 20th. While they aren’t exactly back in the relegation fight, they also aren’t clear of it yet, so games like this are extremely important. Newcastle, meanwhile, are certainly in the middle of a relegation battle, and would love to pick up points here to get more breathing space from Fulham. Picking the line is a mess for me, but I like the over here. As I see it, this game goes one of two ways. Either they both are happy to take a point and this game is the most boring two hours of your life, or something breaks in the first half and both teams try to claw each others eyes out. If this were the Burnley of two months ago then I would have taken the former, because they could have easily sucked the life out of Newcastle and gone home with a comfortable point. But with their recent defensive form, along with Newcastle’s overall defensive form (we’ll just call it “bad” and leave things at that), I expect we get goals here. So, at +148 for over 2.5, we’re getting some damn good value. As Newcastle showed against Spurs last week, they may not be the best side but they can exploit shitty defenders and poor organization. They’ll take some shots at Burnley, while Sean Dyche’s side will also push a bit more knowing they can’t rely as heavily on defending as they have in the past. It may not be a comfortable victory, but the money is right for the bet. 

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (+148)  


Spurs-United: This kind of talk may get me banned from local Spurs groups and bars (jokes on them, they cant trace me to this account), but this is not a good matchup for my boys. I pray to god (or whatever deity will listen to me at this point) that I’m wrong, but this defense is a fucking mess and doesn’t look like its improving. I’ve been betting the Over on Spurs matches recently with both regularity and success, and almost every time I make the same sad joke about how a defense that has Davinson Sanchez or Eric Dier is liable to give up sloppy goals. And, like a damn prophet (maybe god does listen?) they manage to do it every game. I’m honestly starting to believe that Sanchez is blackmailing Mourinho, because there’s really no other explanation as to how he makes it on the field every week. So what’s the play? I see value in a number of places, but why fucking change if you don’t have to. Once again, the books have Spurs over 2.5 at -118, and that is absolutely insane for their style of play right now. Its even crazier against a United side who are second in the league in goals scored and who could legitimately put up 3 (or 7) on their own against this defense. Both teams to score and United Money Line both also seem like good bets for the money, but standard odds for over 2.5 is absolutely insane here. I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, but if that record prints cash I really don’t give a damn. 

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-118)  


Sheffield-Arsenal: Arsenal are floating right in the middle of a sea of mediocrity. I bet against them vs. Liverpool because, quite simply, they don’t have enough quality to compete with teams that good. On the other hand, they are also a “strong” mid table club (for whatever that means) and are better able to comfortably handle lower sides than a team live Villa who are just as liable to play great as they are to lay an egg. Basically, I think they are a very comfortable bet to win games against the lowest of the low, and nobody goes lower than Sheffield. This side never even made a real push to dig themselves out of the relegation hole they built, and are past the point of saving any more. Playing teams near the bottom of the table can be a dangerous task come the Spring because there usually is an effort to fight for survival, but Sheffield don’t even have that motivation any more. They score about 1 goal every two games, while giving up close to 2. There is just no chance they hold up against Arsenal, even with as much as they have struggled, and this is a good spot to make some small but comfortable profit. 

💰 Pick: Arsenal ML (-180)  


Everton-Brighton: Brighton have shown some flashes of quality over the last couple of months, which has built some optimism in the side and given the books a little more to think about in their lines. On top of that, unlike Sheffield, they are dangerous specifically because of their proximity to the relegation line. All in all, not the easy game you would think it would be facing a team in 16th. BUT, give me a fucking break with this line. Everton are not a comfortable underdog against Brighton, and giving them +220 here is the kind of odds you have to take on value alone. Sure, the Toffees have had a tough few games, pulling just 1 point from 3 and are slipping out of the top of the table. But they’re still fighting for a spot in Europe next year, which is a big deal for a club like them, and they’re 15 points ahead of Brighton in the table with a game in hand. At the end of the day, you have to look at that value here and realize its just too good to give up. I think Everton, on quality alone, are about a coin flip to win/not win this one, so a better than 2:1 payout if they do is worth taking a shot at. The money is right, take the risk. 

💰 Pick: Everton ML (+220) 

 

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Prospector Sam
Contributor

Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting. A Boston native, but now based in the goldfields somewhere, Sam is the man when it comes to betting on sports.

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