Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Black Friday NBA matchup [11/28/2025]

NBA Cup action continues on Black Friday at 9:30PM ET as the Phoenix Suns square off with the Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center.

Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Suns vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, while the Suns will be led by Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks and Collin Gillespie.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win NBA Cup game?

As part of Dimers' NBA predictions coverage—and following a review of recent results—our pregame model has generated moneyline, spread, and over/under probabilities for Friday's clash between the Suns and Thunder.

Our independent predictive model gives the Thunder an 86% chance of beating the Suns. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 117-105.

According to our model, the Suns (+14.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 223.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Suns vs. Thunder odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Suns	Thunder
Spread	+14.5 (-105)	-14.5 (-106)
Moneyline	+675	-900
Total	o223.5 (-105)	u223.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Suns vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Suns +14.5	-105
Moneyline	Suns	+675
Total	Over 223.5	-105

According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Suns +14.5 at the spread.

Suns vs. Thunder player props

Looking for Suns vs. Thunder NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Devin Booker is expected to lead the Suns with 23 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and more, for every game this season.

Suns prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Suns are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Devin Booker	23	4	7	2	44
Dillon Brooks	17	4	2	3	29
C. Gillespie	13	5	5	3	32
Mark Williams	12	9	2	0	32
Royce O'Neale	11	6	2	3	28

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	31	5	7	2	53
Chet Holmgren	17	8	2	2	36
Jalen Williams	16	4	4	1	31
Ajay Mitchell	12	3	3	1	24
Luguentz Dort	8	4	1	2	18

Suns vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Friday's action between the Thunder and Suns at Paycom Center is scheduled to begin at 9:30PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Friday, November 28, 2025 (Black Friday)
• Time: 9:30PM ET/6:30PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center
• Tournament details: 2025 Emirates NBA Cup

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Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Suns on Black Friday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Suns vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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