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NBA betting model insights report: Analyzing this week's performance [11/26/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Jason Bevilacqua
This report pulls data from our backend resulting dashboard to highlight where our in-house NBA model has historically excelled with a positive ROI.
Hello and welcome to another NBA Model Insight Report. The data has been on a strong run in recent weeks, with our Best Bet of the Night now hitting 4 straight as we continue using the model’s numbers to find the best spots to attack. We hope these reports are adding value to your experience and helping you navigate the NBA Best Bets page with more confidence throughout the week.
Each week, this report surfaces the most meaningful signals from our internal results dashboard — showing where the Dimers NBA Model has historically delivered a positive ROI — and outlining how you can apply those same profitable patterns when you visit the NBA Best Bets page this week.
NBA 2025-26 season analysis
Our NBA model continues to pick up steam, showing a positive return in every traditional betting market (ML/Spread/Totals)
| SPOT | SAMPLE SIZE | ROI |
| Road team moneyline bets (edge 2% and up) | 40+ | POSITIVE |
| Underdog moneyline bets (edge 2% and up) | 35+ | POSITIVE |
| Points Totals (2-5% edge) | 10+ | POSITIVE |
What does all of that mean?
It’s steady as she goes for the Dimers NBA Model heading into Thanksgiving weekend, with positive ROI across Moneyline, Spread, and Totals bets.
When we dig a bit deeper, however, a few standout spots within those bet types are driving the strongest returns.
First, Road Team Moneyline bets with an edge above 2% have produced consistent profits this season, backed by a sample of 45+ bets. This accounts for a large share of the model’s ML success. In addition, underdogs—both home and away—are outperforming favorites, an important note considering that bets on big plus-money dogs don’t need a winning record to be profitable overall.
On the Totals side, the 2–5% edge range remains the most reliable and profitable window for this market.
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NBA best bet for Wednesday👇
As of publishing, there were two bets that fit the criteria outlined above.
Grizzlies ML (vs. Pelicans)
With a loaded nine-game Wednesday slate, our top play has us looking to Memphis on the road.
The model projects the Grizzlies to win on the moneyline against the Pelicans with a 60.1% probability, creating a 2.3% edge at the best available odds of -137 on BetRivers.
This pick fits within one of our strongest angles this season: Road Team Moneyline plays with an edge above 2% ✅
If the odds on Grizzlies moneyline are gone, then betting Pistons ML at -145 or better is a also a bet.
Conclusion
Building on a successful start, the focus remains on leveraging the most profitable patterns identified by the Dimers NBA Model. The 2025 season analysis confirms the model's status as one of the sharpest in the industry, continuing to show positive ROI in key areas.
These insights are designed to guide your weekly approach to the NBA Best Bets page, helping you apply the same profitable strategies that have been delivering strong returns. By focusing on these opportunities, you give yourself the best chance to replicate the model's success and maximize your returns on the hardwood this week.
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Responsible gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Jason Bevilacqua through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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